Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a strong position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where all candidates appear on one ballot and 50 percent is required for an outright win. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise's long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader with established fundraising and endorsements support trader consensus on a first-round victory. Recent redistricting preserved the seat's partisan balance following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. Weak Republican challengers such as Randall Arrington and limited Democratic opposition have not altered expectations. Historical patterns in similar solidly partisan districts further align with the current implied probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
92% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Sì
92% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a strong position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where all candidates appear on one ballot and 50 percent is required for an outright win. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise's long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader with established fundraising and endorsements support trader consensus on a first-round victory. Recent redistricting preserved the seat's partisan balance following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. Weak Republican challengers such as Randall Arrington and limited Democratic opposition have not altered expectations. Historical patterns in similar solidly partisan districts further align with the current implied probability.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,455Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a strong position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where all candidates appear on one ballot and 50 percent is required for an outright win. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise's long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader with established fundraising and endorsements support trader consensus on a first-round victory. Recent redistricting preserved the seat's partisan balance following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. Weak Republican challengers such as Randall Arrington and limited Democratic opposition have not altered expectations. Historical patterns in similar solidly partisan districts further align with the current implied probability.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,455Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Steve Scalise maintains a strong position in Louisiana's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, where all candidates appear on one ballot and 50 percent is required for an outright win. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise's long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader with established fundraising and endorsements support trader consensus on a first-round victory. Recent redistricting preserved the seat's partisan balance following the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. Weak Republican challengers such as Randall Arrington and limited Democratic opposition have not altered expectations. Historical patterns in similar solidly partisan districts further align with the current implied probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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