With roughly 21 Democratic House members already announcing they will not seek re-election in 2026, trader consensus has coalesced around the 32–35 range as the most probable final total. Senior lawmakers including Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others have cited age and the cumulative effects of extended service as primary factors, while additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. Historical patterns show that the bulk of retirement decisions occur closer to state filing deadlines later this year, supporting expectations for further announcements that could push the total into the favored bucket. Current open seats and primary dynamics in states such as Illinois and California continue to shape assessments of how many more incumbents may step aside before the cycle concludes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato32–35 41.7%
28–31 21%
24–27 17%
20–23 15.4%
$31,647 Vol.
$31,647 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
3%
20–23
15%
24–27
17%
28–31
21%
32–35
42%
36–39
3%
40 o più
20%
32–35 41.7%
28–31 21%
24–27 17%
20–23 15.4%
$31,647 Vol.
$31,647 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
3%
20–23
$5,244 Vol.
15%
24–27
$4,156 Vol.
17%
28–31
$1,174 Vol.
21%
32–35
$3,574 Vol.
42%
36–39
$508 Vol.
3%
40 o più
$0 Vol.
20%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With roughly 21 Democratic House members already announcing they will not seek re-election in 2026, trader consensus has coalesced around the 32–35 range as the most probable final total. Senior lawmakers including Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others have cited age and the cumulative effects of extended service as primary factors, while additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. Historical patterns show that the bulk of retirement decisions occur closer to state filing deadlines later this year, supporting expectations for further announcements that could push the total into the favored bucket. Current open seats and primary dynamics in states such as Illinois and California continue to shape assessments of how many more incumbents may step aside before the cycle concludes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,647Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With roughly 21 Democratic House members already announcing they will not seek re-election in 2026, trader consensus has coalesced around the 32–35 range as the most probable final total. Senior lawmakers including Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others have cited age and the cumulative effects of extended service as primary factors, while additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. Historical patterns show that the bulk of retirement decisions occur closer to state filing deadlines later this year, supporting expectations for further announcements that could push the total into the favored bucket. Current open seats and primary dynamics in states such as Illinois and California continue to shape assessments of how many more incumbents may step aside before the cycle concludes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,647Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With roughly 21 Democratic House members already announcing they will not seek re-election in 2026, trader consensus has coalesced around the 32–35 range as the most probable final total. Senior lawmakers including Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and others have cited age and the cumulative effects of extended service as primary factors, while additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. Historical patterns show that the bulk of retirement decisions occur closer to state filing deadlines later this year, supporting expectations for further announcements that could push the total into the favored bucket. Current open seats and primary dynamics in states such as Illinois and California continue to shape assessments of how many more incumbents may step aside before the cycle concludes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti