Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato20–23 43.9%
24–27 40%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$44,531 Vol.
$44,531 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
8%
20–23
44%
24–27
40%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40 o più
1%
20–23 43.9%
24–27 40%
28–31 18.2%
32–35 12.1%
$44,531 Vol.
$44,531 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
$17,793 Vol.
8%
20–23
$9,739 Vol.
44%
24–27
$7,530 Vol.
40%
28–31
$1,924 Vol.
10%
32–35
$4,526 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,348 Vol.
1%
40 o più
$1,671 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$44,531Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,531Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements by senior Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jerry Nadler, and several others citing age or generational transition, have brought the total of House members not seeking re-election to 23 as of early August 2026, aligning with the narrow lead in the 20–23 bin. Additional departures stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and redistricting pressures in certain states. With primaries and filing deadlines still ahead in multiple districts, further announcements or shifts could push the final count higher or stabilize it near current levels. Trader consensus remains closely split between the leading ranges because the ultimate total hinges on whether more incumbents opt out before the November election, reflecting the typical late-cycle retirement pattern in midterm cycles without a dominant wave of additional exits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il numero di membri repubblicani della Camera che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà compreso tra 36 e 39 inclusi?
83%
Sì
Il numero di senatori repubblicani che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà esattamente 7?
77%
Sì
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
49%
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