Recent primary results show seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 contests, an above-average tally driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover, and redistricting in states like Texas and New York. Notable losses include Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, and Adriano Espaillat, often to candidates backed by figures like Bernie Sanders or local left-leaning networks emphasizing generational change and opposition to corporate PAC funding. Trader consensus centers on 10-12 total defeats because remaining primaries could produce several more upsets amid ongoing intraparty tensions, while historical norms and the limited number of open seats suggest totals above 15 remain less likely. Upcoming filing deadlines and late-summer contests will clarify whether the pace of ousters accelerates or moderates before the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10-12 50.4%
7-9 9.2%
>15 1.6%
<3 <1%
$23,356 Vol.
$23,356 Vol.
<3
1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
9%
10-12
50%
13-15
22%
>15
2%
10-12 50.4%
7-9 9.2%
>15 1.6%
<3 <1%
$23,356 Vol.
$23,356 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
1%
4-6
$1,812 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,512 Vol.
9%
10-12
$4,514 Vol.
50%
13-15
$2,071 Vol.
22%
>15
$2,341 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 contests, an above-average tally driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover, and redistricting in states like Texas and New York. Notable losses include Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, and Adriano Espaillat, often to candidates backed by figures like Bernie Sanders or local left-leaning networks emphasizing generational change and opposition to corporate PAC funding. Trader consensus centers on 10-12 total defeats because remaining primaries could produce several more upsets amid ongoing intraparty tensions, while historical norms and the limited number of open seats suggest totals above 15 remain less likely. Upcoming filing deadlines and late-summer contests will clarify whether the pace of ousters accelerates or moderates before the November general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$23,356Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent primary results show seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 contests, an above-average tally driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover, and redistricting in states like Texas and New York. Notable losses include Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, and Adriano Espaillat, often to candidates backed by figures like Bernie Sanders or local left-leaning networks emphasizing generational change and opposition to corporate PAC funding. Trader consensus centers on 10-12 total defeats because remaining primaries could produce several more upsets amid ongoing intraparty tensions, while historical norms and the limited number of open seats suggest totals above 15 remain less likely. Upcoming filing deadlines and late-summer contests will clarify whether the pace of ousters accelerates or moderates before the November general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$23,356Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent primary results show seven Democratic House incumbents already defeated in 2026 contests, an above-average tally driven by progressive challengers, generational turnover, and redistricting in states like Texas and New York. Notable losses include Diana DeGette, John Larson, Shri Thanedar, Dan Goldman, and Adriano Espaillat, often to candidates backed by figures like Bernie Sanders or local left-leaning networks emphasizing generational change and opposition to corporate PAC funding. Trader consensus centers on 10-12 total defeats because remaining primaries could produce several more upsets amid ongoing intraparty tensions, while historical norms and the limited number of open seats suggest totals above 15 remain less likely. Upcoming filing deadlines and late-summer contests will clarify whether the pace of ousters accelerates or moderates before the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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