Current announcements place the number of Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36 to 37, driven by recent retirements from members including Reps. Sam Graves and Daniel Webster alongside others pursuing gubernatorial or Senate bids. The near-even split between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over additional departures before filing deadlines, shaped by legislative gridlock, redistricting effects, and competition for higher offices. Further announcements in the coming months could shift probabilities toward the higher bracket, while limited new exits would favor the lower one as primary season advances.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti membri della Camera repubblicana non correranno nel 2026?
Quanti membri della Camera repubblicana non correranno nel 2026?
40–43 36.2%
44+ 29.8%
28–31 11%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
11%
32–35
<1%
36–39
38%
40–43
41%
44+
30%
40–43 36.2%
44+ 29.8%
28–31 11%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$3,907 Vol.
<1%
24–27
$18,964 Vol.
<1%
28–31
$21,831 Vol.
11%
32–35
$4,611 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$2,548 Vol.
38%
40–43
$2,077 Vol.
41%
44+
$2,602 Vol.
30%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Current announcements place the number of Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36 to 37, driven by recent retirements from members including Reps. Sam Graves and Daniel Webster alongside others pursuing gubernatorial or Senate bids. The near-even split between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over additional departures before filing deadlines, shaped by legislative gridlock, redistricting effects, and competition for higher offices. Further announcements in the coming months could shift probabilities toward the higher bracket, while limited new exits would favor the lower one as primary season advances.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$56,541Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Current announcements place the number of Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36 to 37, driven by recent retirements from members including Reps. Sam Graves and Daniel Webster alongside others pursuing gubernatorial or Senate bids. The near-even split between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over additional departures before filing deadlines, shaped by legislative gridlock, redistricting effects, and competition for higher offices. Further announcements in the coming months could shift probabilities toward the higher bracket, while limited new exits would favor the lower one as primary season advances.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$56,541Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current announcements place the number of Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 36 to 37, driven by recent retirements from members including Reps. Sam Graves and Daniel Webster alongside others pursuing gubernatorial or Senate bids. The near-even split between the 36–39 and 40–43 ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over additional departures before filing deadlines, shaped by legislative gridlock, redistricting effects, and competition for higher offices. Further announcements in the coming months could shift probabilities toward the higher bracket, while limited new exits would favor the lower one as primary season advances.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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