Xavier Becerra holds an 88.7% implied probability in the California governor race because the June 2, 2026 top-two primary produced a November general election matchup between the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and Republican Steve Hilton in a state with consistent Democratic advantages in statewide contests. Becerra consolidated Democratic support after surging in late primary returns, securing roughly 28% of the vote and advancing alongside Hilton, who finished second. Historical patterns, including Democratic performance in recent gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, plus Becerra’s prior statewide experience and endorsements from party leaders, underpin trader consensus. Hilton’s lower share reflects structural barriers for Republican candidates in California, despite his emphasis on regulatory and tax changes. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited opportunity for major shifts absent unforeseen events.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPoll shows Xavier Becerra leading Steve Hilton ahead of November election
A poll conducted shortly after the primary showed Xavier Becerra with a significant lead over Steve Hilton, indicating Becerra as the favorite for the November general election in the heavily Democratic state.
Steve Hilton projected to advance to general election in California governor race
The Associated Press projected Steve Hilton to advance to the general election alongside Xavier Becerra, confirming the top two candidates. This official projection reinforced Hilton's market position despite earlier declines, stabilizing his price as the Republican nominee.
Steve Hilton confirmed as second candidate for California governor general election
Steve Hilton dips to 8%1%
After a slow vote count, Steve Hilton was confirmed as the second candidate to advance to the general election alongside Xavier Becerra. This confirmation ended uncertainty and influenced market prices, with Becerra's odds rising and Hilton's declining slightly.
Steve Hilton secures second spot in California governor race, beating Tom Steyer
Steve Hilton dips to 8%1%
Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general election against Xavier Becerra, overtaking Tom Steyer in the primary and solidifying the November matchup, impacting market prices for both candidates.
Xavier Becerra advances to November California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 88%22%
The Associated Press and other outlets called the June primary, confirming Becerra as the other top‑two finisher; his market price jumped from the low‑teens to the high‑80s.
Steve Hilton officially projected to advance to California governor general election
Steve Hilton plunges to 9%16%
Steve Hilton secured the second spot in the primary election, advancing to the general election against Xavier Becerra, with President Trump's endorsement playing a key role in consolidating Republican support.
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton will face off in California governor’s race
Following the primary, Becerra and Hilton were confirmed as the general election candidates, solidifying the market's leading positions for these two and ending the viability of other candidates.
Steve Hilton advances to November California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 8%2%
The Associated Press, NBC and the Guardian all called the June 2 primary, confirming Hilton as one of the top‑two finishers and moving his market price to around 8 %.
Steve Hilton officially secures second spot in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 9%2%
Following the final vote counts, Steve Hilton was officially confirmed as the second-place finisher in the primary, securing his place in the November general election against Xavier Becerra. This confirmation was reflected in market pricing and media coverage.
Steve Hilton officially advances to general election for California governor
Steve Hilton dips to 9%1%
Steve Hilton, endorsed by Donald Trump, secured the second spot in the general election, setting up a November contest against Democrat Xavier Becerra.
Steve Hilton advances to general election against Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton rises to 9%1%
Republican Steve Hilton secured the second spot in the June primary, beating Democrat Tom Steyer, setting up a general election contest against Xavier Becerra. This was reflected in Hilton's market price stabilizing at 9%.
Xavier Becerra holds campaign event in Los Angeles launching general election campaign
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%21%
Xavier Becerra held a campaign event in Los Angeles to launch his general election campaign after advancing from the primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence in his chances.
Xavier Becerra officially advances to general election for California governor
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%28%
Xavier Becerra secured a spot in the general election, reinforcing his status as the Democratic frontrunner and causing his market price to peak near 89%.
Steve Hilton endorsed by Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the general election, reflected in a market price increase.
Xavier Becerra secures top spot on California ballot for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 89%2%
Xavier Becerra clinched the top spot on California’s ballot for governor following the primary, confirming his status as the leading Democratic candidate and solidifying his market position near 89%.
Steve Hilton receives Trump endorsement in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Republican candidate Steve Hilton received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in April 2026, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the primary and general elections.
California primary election confirms Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, solidifying their market positions and ending the viability of other candidates.
Steve Hilton receives Trump endorsement and leads early primary results
Steve Hilton surges to 29%20%
Republican Steve Hilton, endorsed by President Trump, led early returns in the California governor primary, reflecting strong conservative support despite the crowded field.
Associated Press calls Xavier Becerra top of California governor primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 75%20%
The Associated Press called the primary, confirming Becerra as the top‑vote‑getter with 27 % and advancing him to the November general election. Market price jumped from 55 % to 75 % (price before = 55, price after = 75).
California primary election confirms Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%19%
The June 2, 2026 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election. This outcome solidified market expectations and led to a sharp increase in Becerra's market price.
Steve Hilton qualifies for California governor general election with Trump endorsement
Hilton’s primary success, bolstered by Donald Trump’s endorsement, secured his place in the general election against Becerra, impacting market prices significantly.
Xavier Becerra secures top spot in California governor primary, advancing to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%20%
Becerra’s strong primary performance confirmed his frontrunner status, significantly increasing his market price and positioning him for the general election.
California primary election results project Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton to advance
Xavier Becerra surges to 90%42%
The June 2, 2026, primary election results projected Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election. This official projection solidified market confidence in Becerra's and Hilton's chances, causing Becerra's price to rise sharply and Hilton's to stabilize as the runner-up.
California primary election sets general election candidates for governor
The June 2, 2026 primary election concluded with Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advancing to the November general election, while other candidates like Tom Steyer and Chad Bianco were eliminated, shaping the final race.
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to California governor general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 89%39%
Following the June 2 primary, Becerra and Hilton emerged as the top two candidates, securing their spots in the November general election. This outcome was confirmed by multiple news sources and solidified the race's final matchup.
Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to California governor general election
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, shaping the final contest for governor.
Steve Hilton officially projected to advance in California governor primary
Steve Hilton plunges to 9%40%
Steve Hilton secured the second spot in the primary election, advancing to the general election against Becerra. Trump's endorsement and strong GOP support were key factors in his advancement.
California primary election results: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary election confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, causing a sharp rise in their market prices and the collapse of other candidates' chances.
California primary election results confirm Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary election results confirmed Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election. This solidified Becerra's and Hilton's market prices and ended the viability of other candidates like Chad Bianco and Antonio Villaraigosa.
California primary election results: Becerra and Hilton advance to general election
The June 2 primary concluded with Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton as the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, confirming market expectations and causing other candidates' prices to drop to zero.
California primary election results: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton advance to general election
Xavier Becerra surges to 90%40%
In the June 2 primary, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton secured the top two spots, advancing to the November general election, reflecting the state's political landscape and voter preferences.
Steve Hilton advances to California governor general election
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general election alongside Xavier Becerra, securing a spot in the November runoff and setting up a competitive race between the two candidates.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra advance to California governor general election
Following the June 2 primary, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra secured the top two spots to advance to the November general election, setting the stage for the final contest.
California primary election results show Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton leading
The June 2, 2026, primary election results indicated that Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton were the top two candidates, advancing to the general election. This solidified their positions as frontrunners and was reflected in market prices.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor primary poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 67%33%
A poll released in early June showed Xavier Becerra pulling ahead of fellow Democrats, reinforcing his frontrunner status and contributing to his market price rise.
Steve Hilton endorsed by Donald Trump in California governor race
Steve Hilton surges to 29%20%
Republican Steve Hilton, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron and Fox News host, received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and campaign in the California governor’s race. This endorsement helped Hilton gain momentum and polling support.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor
Kamala Harris plunges to 0%49%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris officially announced she will not run for California governor in 2026, removing a potential major Democratic contender from the race and solidifying the field of candidates.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum with major ad buys and social media push
Xavier Becerra surges to 67%28%
Becerra's campaign ramped up statewide television and digital advertising, along with social media efforts, significantly increasing his visibility and market support.
Kamala Harris and Rick Caruso probabilities fall to zero in California governor race
Kamala Harris drops to 0%5%
By late May 2026, market probabilities for Kamala Harris and Rick Caruso dropped to zero, reflecting their diminished campaign viability and lack of traction in the race.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 68%65%
Swalwell's abrupt withdrawal and resignation from Congress following allegations caused a reshuffling of support among Democratic candidates, benefiting rivals like Becerra and Steyer and impacting market probabilities.
Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton remain longshots in California governor race
Chad Bianco drops to 2%6%
Despite endorsements and campaign efforts, Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton maintained low market probabilities, reflecting California's Democratic-leaning electorate and crowded field.
Libertarian Tom Woodard suspends California governor bid and endorses Steve Hilton
Tom Woodard ended his gubernatorial campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially broadening Hilton's appeal to libertarian and independent voters and strengthening his position in the race.
Rick Caruso’s campaign support falls to zero in California governor race
Caruso’s market price dropped to zero, reflecting his campaign’s failure to gain traction and effectively ending his chances in the race.
Libertarian candidate Tom Woodard suspends California governor bid and endorses Steve Hilton
Tom Woodard ended his gubernatorial campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially broadening Hilton's appeal to libertarian and independent voters and strengthening his position in the race.
Libertarian Tom Woodard suspends campaign and endorses Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton jumps to 22%8%
Libertarian candidate Tom Woodard ended his campaign and endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, potentially consolidating libertarian and conservative voters behind Hilton and strengthening his position in the race.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls and market after campaign ad blitz
Xavier Becerra jumps to 66%11%
Following a statewide television and digital ad campaign, Becerra's support surged significantly, reflected in a sharp increase in market price as he emerged as a leading candidate.
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support amid final campaign push
Xavier Becerra surges to 68%17%
Becerra's market support peaked at 68% in late May as his campaign intensified efforts ahead of the June primary, solidifying his position as a leading candidate.
Xavier Becerra solidifies frontrunner status in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
By late May, Becerra's market price reached 62%, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the governor's race, while other candidates' chances diminished significantly.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor race as primary nears
Xavier Becerra jumps to 59%10%
Becerra's market price reached its highest point in the analysis window, reflecting growing confidence in his chances to win the governorship as the June primary approaches.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Steve Hilton jumps to 22%14%
A poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading the gubernatorial race, with Hilton slightly ahead, indicating a competitive top-two primary.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra rises to 51%3%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply in May 2026, reflecting increased campaign momentum and possibly consolidating support after Swalwell's exit and Steyer's fluctuating standing.
Latest poll confirms Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%11%
An EVITARUS poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Hilton at 22% and Becerra at 21%, confirming their positions as frontrunners and impacting market confidence and prices.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor’s race betting odds
By mid-May 2026, betting markets heavily favored Xavier Becerra as the likely winner of the California governor’s race, reflecting his surge in political momentum and polling.
Xavier Becerra becomes clear favorite in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
Becerra's polling and betting odds surged, making him the leading candidate to win the governorship, reflecting growing confidence among voters and political bettors.
Tom Steyer’s chances decline as Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race
Tom Steyer drops to 32%5%
Market prices show Tom Steyer’s support falling from 37% to 32% while Xavier Becerra’s rises to 51%, indicating shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics ahead of the primary.
Tom Steyer holds Palm Springs town hall focusing on affordability and climate
Tom Steyer drops to 32%7%
Tom Steyer held a town hall in Palm Springs emphasizing affordability, housing, and climate change policies. His campaign focused on lowering electricity costs and building affordable housing, aiming to resonate with voters concerned about cost of living.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor market at 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%10%
By mid-May, Becerra had solidified his lead in the market, reflecting his status as the frontrunner in the race.
Tony Thurmond outlines progressive platform focusing on affordability and education
Tony Thurmond, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction, emphasized affordability, housing, healthcare, and education in his campaign, appealing to progressive voters though polling remains lower than frontrunners.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of governor race
Cloobeck’s withdrawal removed his remaining support, confirming his market price at zero and consolidating votes among remaining candidates.
Final market prices show Xavier Becerra as frontrunner with 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
By the end of the analysis window, Xavier Becerra held a market price of 51%, solidifying his position as the leading candidate, while other candidates' prices declined significantly, reflecting market consensus on likely election outcome.
Report highlights criticism of Becerra's record and campaign fraud case
A CalMatters report detailed criticism of Becerra's handling of migrant children as health secretary and a campaign fraud case involving his former staff, raising questions about his fitness for office. Despite the negative press, Becerra's market price remained high, reflecting confidence in his campaign resilience.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on felony witness intimidation charges
Stephen Cloobeck dips to 0%1%
Former gubernatorial candidate Stephen Cloobeck was arrested on charges related to attempting to prevent witnesses from testifying in a criminal case involving his fiancée. This legal trouble led to his campaign suspension and a drop to zero in market price.
Katie Porter attacks Becerra and boosts Hilton in governor debate
In the final gubernatorial debate before the primary, Katie Porter publicly adopted a tax cut proposal from Republican Steve Hilton and criticized frontrunner Xavier Becerra. This strategic move aimed to improve her standing and appeal to a broader electorate.
Katie Porter attacks Xavier Becerra and boosts Steve Hilton in California governor debate
Katie Porter plunges to 0%49%
In the final gubernatorial debate before the primary, Katie Porter publicly adopted a tax cut idea from Steve Hilton, boosting his visibility while attacking frontrunner Xavier Becerra, influencing voter perceptions and campaign dynamics.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in new California governor poll
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
A Kreate Strategies poll showed Republican Steve Hilton leading with 22% and Democrat Xavier Becerra close behind at 20%, indicating a tight race and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Xavier Becerra leads crowded California governor race in poll
Xavier Becerra jumps to 63%14%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra surging to the lead among likely voters, surpassing rivals including Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton. This momentum was reflected in his market price rising to 63%.
Stephen Cloobeck arrested on felony charges related to witness intimidation
Stephen Cloobeck drops to 0%12%
Stephen Cloobeck, a former gubernatorial candidate who dropped out in late 2025, was arrested on felony charges for allegedly attempting to intimidate witnesses in a criminal case involving his fiancée. This scandal likely contributed to his market price dropping to zero and his exit from the race.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 84%48%
Following the exit of Eric Swalwell and endorsements from key Democrats, Xavier Becerra surged in polls to become the clear Democratic frontrunner for governor.
Xavier Becerra leads tight California governor race in Emerson College poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 70%21%
An Emerson College poll showed Becerra leading with 19% support among likely voters, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer close behind. Becerra's momentum increased after Eric Swalwell's exit, strengthening his frontrunner status and impacting market confidence.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor race in new poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 34%24%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra surging to lead the crowded field after Eric Swalwell's exit, boosting his market price significantly.
Xavier Becerra leads in tight California governor race poll
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%8%
A poll showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 19% support, closely followed by Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, indicating a tight race ahead of the June primary.
Xavier Becerra leads latest poll in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field ahead of the June primary, surpassing Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support at 55%
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
Xavier Becerra's market price peaked at 55%, indicating strong market confidence in his chances to win the governorship, likely due to positive campaign developments or polling data.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leads crowded California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 47%19%
A poll released on May 13 showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 19% support, gaining momentum after Eric Swalwell's exit and endorsements. This poll reinforced Becerra's frontrunner status and boosted his market price.
Xavier Becerra gains market lead
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%6%
As the field narrowed, Xavier Becerra emerged as a leading candidate in the market's estimation.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
A poll released on May 13, 2026, showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field of gubernatorial candidates, boosting his market price and solidifying his frontrunner status.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%22%
Polling data released in May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with increased support, particularly after Eric Swalwell's exit. This surge was reflected in the market with a significant price increase for Becerra.
Tom Steyer’s price drops to 34% after poll shows steep decline
Tom Steyer drops to 34%10%
A mid‑May poll indicated Steyer falling behind the leading candidates, prompting a market correction that reduced his price from a recent high.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly, reflecting increased support and momentum in the race, possibly due to campaign efforts and shifts after Swalwell's exit.
Xavier Becerra requests balanced interview approach in KTLA profile
Xavier Becerra jumps to 61%6%
Becerra's demand for a fair interview rather than a 'gotcha' piece aimed to manage media narratives and improve public image, coinciding with a price increase in the market.
Tom Steyer’s polling declines after peak, Becerra rises
Tom Steyer plunges to 47%23%
Steyer’s market price dropped from 70% to 47% while Becerra’s rose, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics as the primary approached.
Tom Steyer's support drops sharply after primary polling
Tom Steyer plunges to 26%17%
Following the primary polling, Steyer's market price dropped from 43% to 26%, indicating a loss of momentum and voter support in the race.
Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra lead in California governor race polls
Steve Hilton rises to 10%1%
Polls showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied for the lead in the crowded California governor race, reflecting a competitive primary with no clear frontrunner and a fragmented electorate.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls after Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee exit race
Xavier Becerra surges to 64%30%
Following the exit of Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra's polling numbers surged significantly, rising from low single digits to leading the Democratic field. This surge was reflected in market prices increasing from around 34% to 64%.
Steyer’s price drops to 32% after fundraising report shows rivals closing gap
Tom Steyer plunges to 32%23%
A report revealing that Porter and Mahan had raised comparable sums to Steyer caused his price to decline from 55% to 32%, reflecting market concerns over his financial advantage eroding.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, boosted Hilton's profile and market support, reflecting increased Republican activity in the race.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in late-stage polling
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%6%
Becerra's campaign saw a late surge in support, pushing his market price to a peak of 55% by mid-May.
Xavier Becerra demands 'profile piece' interview amid campaign scrutiny
Xavier Becerra jumps to 67%12%
In a KTLA interview, Becerra requested a balanced profile rather than a 'gotcha' piece, reflecting his campaign's effort to manage media narratives amid criticism. This event coincided with a notable price increase for Becerra, indicating market reaction to his media strategy and visibility.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%24%
Becerra's market price surged from near zero to over 50% as his campaign gained traction late in the analysis window, reflecting increased voter support and campaign activity.
Xavier Becerra surges in market as primary approaches
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Becerra's campaign momentum and perceived electability surged, reflected in a sharp increase in market price as the June primary neared.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 56%23%
Becerra's market price surged as he gained traction late in the campaign, possibly due to consolidating Democratic support after Swalwell's exit and Steyer's fluctuating support.
Xavier Becerra's support climbs to 49% in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 49%13%
Becerra's continued rise in market probability to nearly half reflects his strengthening position as a leading Democratic candidate ahead of the primary election.
Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in California governor general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the crowded Democratic field could split votes enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election, impacting market perceptions of Republican candidates' chances.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
A Kreate Strategies poll showed Republican Steve Hilton leading with 22% and Democrat Xavier Becerra close behind at 20%, reflecting a tightening race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor election market
Xavier Becerra surges to 49%19%
Becerra's market price surged to 49%, overtaking other candidates as he gained traction in the race, reflecting increased support and campaign effectiveness.
Katie Porter’s support collapses in California governor race
Katie Porter dips to 1%3%
Porter’s market price dropped to near zero amid ongoing campaign struggles and negative press, effectively ending her viability as a candidate.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
Becerra's campaign saw a notable rise in support, possibly due to consolidating Democratic voters after Swalwell's exit and shifting dynamics in the race.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as Newsom critic
Matt Mahan plunges to 27%19%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, emphasizing his moderate stance and criticism of Newsom on homelessness and crime. His entry added a new dynamic to the race, though his market support eventually declined.
Kreate Strategies poll shows Becerra close behind Steve Hilton in governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
A poll released showed Becerra at 20% support, just behind Republican Steve Hilton at 22%, indicating a tightening race and increased market confidence in Becerra.
Polls show Xavier Becerra surging to lead California governor primary race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%18%
Multiple polls in May 2026 showed Xavier Becerra surging ahead in the crowded primary field, gaining significant support among Democratic voters after Swalwell's exit. This polling momentum was reflected in the market with a sharp rise in Becerra's price.
Rick Caruso’s campaign funds exhausted, ceases advertising
With no remaining cash, Caruso’s visibility vanished, confirming his market price at zero and ending his competitive relevance.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 49%23%
Becerra's market price surged as his campaign gained traction, possibly due to consolidation of Democratic support after Swalwell's exit and increased campaign activity, signaling improved chances in the primary.
Becerra rebounds to 55% after securing major union endorsement
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%8%
A key labor union endorsement lifted Becerra’s price from 47% to 55%, reviving his momentum heading into the final weeks before the primary.
Katie Porter’s price falls to 2% after poll shows her trailing significantly
Katie Porter dips to 2%2%
A new poll released in early May placed Porter well behind the frontrunners, causing a sharp decline in her market price to near‑zero.
Becerra surges to 48% after high‑profile endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%31%
A prominent labor union endorsement boosted Becerra’s credibility, lifting his price sharply as the primary approached.
Criticism of Xavier Becerra's pandemic leadership emerges from former Biden officials
Xavier Becerra dips to 49%2%
Former colleagues criticized Becerra's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting public perception and causing some volatility in his market price.
Sierra Club endorses Tom Steyer for California governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 39%7%
The Sierra Club endorsed Tom Steyer for governor, highlighting his long record of climate advocacy and environmental leadership. This endorsement boosted Steyer’s progressive credentials and campaign momentum.
Xavier Becerra defends record amid criticism over lost migrant children
Xavier Becerra rises to 55%4%
During a debate, Becerra was pressed on reports of migrant children lost under his watch as HHS Secretary, which brought scrutiny but also media attention to his candidacy, impacting market perceptions.
Democratic candidates debate intensifies California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%18%
A heated debate among the main Democratic candidates, including Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, highlighted key issues like cost of living and healthcare. Becerra's campaign gained momentum following the exit of Eric Swalwell amid scandal, improving his market standing significantly.
Xavier Becerra intensifies campaign efforts in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%5%
Becerra's focused campaign in Los Angeles on affordability and readiness to govern helped boost his standing in polls and market prices as the primary approached.
California gubernatorial debate highlights affordability and campaign scandals
Xavier Becerra rises to 10%4%
A key debate featured leading candidates including Becerra and Hilton discussing major issues like housing affordability and addressing campaign finance scandals affecting Becerra, influencing voter perceptions ahead of the primary.
California Academy of Family Physicians endorses Xavier Becerra for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 52%4%
The California Academy of Family Physicians endorsed Becerra, providing a significant institutional boost to his campaign and reinforcing his front-runner status.
CNN gubernatorial debate features Becerra and rivals
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%11%
Becerra's participation in the CNN debate further increased his visibility and allowed him to defend his record, contributing to his market price rise.
CNN gubernatorial debate features key candidates including Becerra and Steyer
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%17%
The debate provided a platform for candidates to present policies and challenge opponents, influencing voter perceptions and market prices, notably benefiting Becerra's visibility.
California billionaire‑tax proposal sparks debate, hurting progressive candidates
Katie Porter dips to 2%2%
The controversial tax on billionaires divided Democrats, pulling support from progressive candidates like Katie Porter and Kamala Harris, whose prices fell to single digits.
San Francisco's former mayor Willie Brown endorses Tom Steyer for governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%8%
Willie Brown, former San Francisco mayor, endorsed Tom Steyer, adding significant political weight and labor support to Steyer's campaign in the final stretch before the primary.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 39%11%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained traction late in the race, reflected in a significant price increase, as he consolidated support from former Swalwell backers and positioned himself as a leading Democratic candidate.
Xavier Becerra's campaign surges ahead in final weeks before primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 41%13%
Becerra's price rose sharply, reflecting increased support and campaign momentum as the primary approached.
Steyer’s price falls after poll shows Porter closing gap
Tom Steyer drops to 47%12%
A new poll indicated Porter narrowing the gap with Steyer, pulling Steyer’s price down from 59% to 47% as the market reassessed the race dynamics.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%19%
New polling data from the California Democratic Party showed Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race. This poll contributed to Becerra's price increase and Hilton's decline in the market.
Poll shows Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra tied in California governor race
An EVITARUS tracking poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied at 18% each, reflecting a competitive primary race and influencing market prices for both candidates.
President Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 22%27%
Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and consolidating Republican support behind him. This endorsement was a key factor in Hilton maintaining a strong position in the race and advancing to the general election, reflected in his market price.
Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass, declines to run for California governor
Former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for reelection and announced she would not run for California governor, removing a major potential candidate from the race and impacting market dynamics.
Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and campaign, significantly impacting his polling and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 36%31%
Becerra's campaign saw a surge in support and market probability, rising sharply in early May 2026, reflecting growing voter confidence and campaign effectiveness.
Tom Steyer's ad spending boosts his standing in California governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 44%7%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads increased his market price significantly, reinforcing his position as a leading candidate despite a crowded field.
Kamala Harris endorses Xavier Becerra for governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 51%3%
Former U.S. Senator Kamala Harris publicly backed Xavier Becerra, giving his market price a final boost to just above 50 percent.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 47%19%
Becerra's market price surged as he gained traction in the crowded Democratic field, benefiting from Swalwell's exit and consolidating moderate support.
Xavier Becerra reaches 52% market price after late‑April surge
Xavier Becerra rises to 52%4%
Following a series of policy announcements and strong fundraising, Becerra’s market price climbed to its endpoint of 52%, making him the leading candidate as the primary approaches.
Steyer’s ad spend peaks with $20 million TV buy
Tom Steyer jumps to 43%8%
A fresh wave of Steyer ads temporarily lifted his market price, though the effect was limited as voters remained skeptical of his wealth‑driven campaign.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 30%30%
Xavier Becerra's campaign saw a significant rebound in support, with his market price rising sharply, indicating growing voter confidence in his candidacy.
Xavier Becerra campaigns heavily in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%10%
Becerra intensified campaign efforts focusing on affordability and readiness to govern, boosting his standing in polls and market prices as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after high‑profile health‑care endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 25%25%
A major health‑care union endorsement propelled Becerra’s price from near‑zero to the top of the market, reflecting renewed voter confidence in his experience.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum after strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra rises to 34%3%
Becerra's performance in a key debate helped solidify his position as a frontrunner, countering criticism and highlighting his experience. This contributed to a rise in his market price.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%18%
New polling data showed Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race, which was reflected in market price changes.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra catching up with Steve Hilton in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
A CBS poll indicated Becerra rapidly gaining ground on Republican Steve Hilton, signaling a shift in voter preferences and tightening the race, which was reflected in market price changes.
Xavier Becerra rebounds after debate‑eligibility ruling
Xavier Becerra surges to 17%17%
A state election board ruled Becerra met the debate eligibility criteria, reviving his campaign and sparking a jump from near‑zero to 17% as voters reconsidered his viability.
Xavier Becerra’s price climbs to 48% following endorsement from a major labor union
Xavier Becerra surges to 48%24%
A key endorsement from a statewide labor federation gave Becerra a credibility boost, moving his price from the low‑20s to near‑50% as the primary approached.
Republican Chad Bianco gains attention after law‑and‑order rally
Chad Bianco rises to 4%2%
Sheriff Chad Bianco held a high‑visibility rally emphasizing public safety, boosting his profile among Republican voters and nudging his market price upward.
Steve Hilton’s campaign stalls after low fundraising report
Steve Hilton dips to 6%3%
Financial disclosures showed Hilton’s campaign raised far less than projected, causing his market price to dip back toward single digits.
Becerra’s price slips after controversy over former chief of staff’s indictment
Xavier Becerra plunges to 28%15%
News of a former chief of staff’s federal corruption indictment caused Becerra’s price to fall from 43% to 28%, tempering the earlier surge.
California gubernatorial debate highlights Becerra's experience and policy plans
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%10%
During a key debate, Becerra defended his record and experience against rivals, reinforcing his image as a steady candidate and contributing to his rising market price and voter support.
Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race after strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 39%16%
Becerra's strong debate showing and steady campaign helped him gain support, positioning him as a safe harbor for Democrats amid a shaken race. This contributed to his market price surge.
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Xavier Becerra performs strongly in California governor debate
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Becerra's debate performance, defending his experience and plans, helped solidify his position as a leading candidate, contributing to his price increase in the market.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton's profile among Republican voters, briefly increasing his market price, though it remained low overall.
Xavier Becerra rises in polls after strong debate performance and campaign strategy
Xavier Becerra surges to 40%35%
Following a debate where Becerra defended his experience against rivals, his campaign gained momentum as voters viewed him as a steady and experienced candidate, reflected in rising poll numbers and market prices.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls amid Democratic field uncertainty
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra’s market price rose sharply as he gained traction late in the primary season, capitalizing on the fragmented Democratic vote and Swalwell’s exit.
Tom Steyer's support sharply declines after peak polling
Tom Steyer plunges to 41%29%
Following his peak, Tom Steyer's polling and market price dropped significantly, indicating waning support possibly due to campaign dynamics or emerging competition.
Tom Steyer’s price spikes to 37% after new TV ads debut
Tom Steyer surges to 37%26%
A fresh wave of high‑budget TV ads boosted Steyer’s visibility, pushing his market price sharply upward before a rapid reversal later in the month.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%13%
The withdrawal of a major candidate following sexual assault allegations caused significant market reordering.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum after Swalwell's exit and strong debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum, with polls showing increased support. His debate performance and steady campaign helped him rise in the market prices.
Xavier Becerra's support surges in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply from near zero to over 27%, reflecting increased polling support or campaign momentum, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events boosting his profile.
Xavier Becerra campaigns heavily in Los Angeles ahead of June primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%9%
Becerra intensified campaign efforts focusing on affordability and readiness to govern, boosting his polling and market prices as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%28%
Becerra's market price surged significantly, possibly due to campaign developments or endorsements, marking a recovery from earlier lows.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race amid allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%26%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following sexual assault allegations, which he denies, causing a reshuffling of support among Democratic candidates and impacting market prices, particularly benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Nexstar gubernatorial debate highlights Becerra's experience and policy plans
Xavier Becerra jumps to 27%9%
In a key debate, Becerra defended his record and experience, reinforcing his image as a steady candidate and contributing to his rising market price and voter support.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market prices for Democratic candidates.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 37%32%
Following Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum, with polls and prediction markets showing him as the new Democratic frontrunner.
Becerra’s price jumps to 43% after high‑profile debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 43%16%
Following a televised debate where Becerra outperformed rivals, his price surged from 27% to 43%, reflecting voter optimism about his debate showing.
Steve Hilton launches campaign for California governor as Republican candidate
Steve Hilton plunges to 6%43%
Steve Hilton, former Fox News host and adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron, officially launched his campaign for governor as a Republican, gaining early attention and endorsements, including from Donald Trump, which boosted his market position.
Katie Porter’s former staffers defend her amid viral videos controversy
Porter’s campaign faced backlash after videos showing her temper went viral, but former staffers publicly supported her leadership, stabilizing her campaign amid challenges.
Betty Yee endorses Tom Steyer for California governor
Tom Steyer surges to 37%32%
After suspending her campaign, Betty Yee endorsed Tom Steyer, boosting his campaign momentum and contributing to his polling gains and market price increase.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%50%
After Eric Swalwell's exit, Xavier Becerra surged in polls to become the leading Democratic candidate for governor, gaining endorsements and increasing fundraising, positioning himself as the front-runner in a crowded field.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls after Eric Swalwell exits governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 62%13%
Following the departure of Eric Swalwell amid allegations, Xavier Becerra gained significant polling momentum, becoming the front-runner in the Democratic field and boosting his market price substantially.
Xavier Becerra bolts into first place in California governor poll
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Swalwell's exit, Xavier Becerra surged in polls to become the leading Democratic candidate, leveraging his extensive political experience and positioning as a steady leader amid a fragmented field.
Betty Yee suspends California governor campaign citing lack of support
Betty Yee dips to 0%1%
Former state Controller Betty Yee ended her campaign due to low polling and fundraising challenges, removing her from contention and affecting market prices.
California governor primary polls show Xavier Becerra rising
Polls released after Betty Yee's exit showed Becerra rising in support, indicating consolidation of Democratic voters and increasing his market price while competitors declined.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging to lead in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%21%
Polls released in April 2026 showed Becerra gaining significant support, overtaking rivals including Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton, reflecting growing momentum ahead of the June primary.
Betty Yee suspends campaign for California governor
Betty Yee plunges to 0%49%
Betty Yee ended her campaign citing low polling and lack of financial support, narrowing the Democratic field and signaling a shift in voter priorities towards experience and competence.
Betty Yee ends California governor race bid amid low polling and donor support
Xavier Becerra plunges to 0%49%
Betty Yee, a Democratic candidate, suspended her campaign citing low polling numbers and lack of financial support. Her exit further narrowed the Democratic field, benefiting leading candidates like Xavier Becerra and impacting market prices by reducing competition.
Betty Yee drops out of California governor’s race
Betty Yee dips to 0%1%
Yee suspended her campaign, sending her market price from 1 % to 0 % (price before = 1, price after = 0).
Polls show Xavier Becerra rising after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 37%30%
Following Swalwell's departure, polls indicated a rise in Becerra's support, reflecting increased voter confidence and contributing to his market price surge.
Xavier Becerra surges to lead in California governor primary polls
Xavier Becerra jumps to 23%13%
Polls showed Xavier Becerra gaining momentum and taking the lead in the crowded Democratic field, positioning him as the frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination and boosting his market price.
Katie Porter’s former staffers defend her amid viral video backlash
Katie Porter plunges to 8%41%
Thirty former staffers publicly defended Democratic candidate Katie Porter against negative perceptions from viral videos, emphasizing her leadership and work ethic during the heated gubernatorial campaign.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%9%
Trump's endorsement of Hilton, a Republican candidate, provided a boost to Hilton's campaign and market price, energizing conservative voters and increasing his visibility in the race.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra leading California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 57%9%
A poll by Independent Voter Project showed Xavier Becerra leading the crowded field with 23% support, signaling growing momentum and increasing market prices for Becerra.
Poll shows Steyer overtakes Porter in late‑April survey
Tom Steyer jumps to 43%9%
A Public Policy Institute of California poll released in late April placed Tom Steyer ahead of Katie Porter, prompting a modest price rise for Steyer and a decline for Porter.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging after late‑stage endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
A late‑April poll gave Becerra a surprising boost, moving his price from 0% to 27% as voters reconsidered his experience amid a fragmented field.
Tom Steyer’s price falls after $115 million ad spend report
Tom Steyer drops to 24%12%
Media coverage of Steyer’s massive ad expenditure raised concerns about diminishing returns, causing his market price to retreat from its April peak.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price positively despite the crowded field.
Xavier Becerra sees surge in voter interest following Swalwell's exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Following Swalwell's withdrawal, Becerra's poll numbers and online interest surged, reflecting increased support among Democratic voters and a boost in market prices.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surges to 10% support after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%21%
An Emerson College poll revealed a significant increase in voter support for Xavier Becerra following Swalwell's departure, boosting his market price and positioning him as a leading candidate.
Emerson College poll shows Xavier Becerra surging after Swalwell's exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 39%39%
A poll released shortly after Swalwell's withdrawal showed Becerra's support rising significantly among Democratic voters, which was reflected in the market price increase.
Tom Steyer's polling peaks amid heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%50%
Tom Steyer's polling surged to a peak of 70% following his extensive advertising campaign, marking his highest market price. However, this peak was short-lived as subsequent events and competition tempered his lead.
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Tom Steyer’s polling surges amid heavy ad spending in governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 40%27%
Steyer's extensive ad campaign led to a significant increase in polling numbers, briefly positioning him as a leading Democratic candidate in the race.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 30%17%
Tom Steyer's unprecedented spending on TV and radio ads increased his visibility and polling numbers, making him a leading Democratic contender despite a crowded field. This spending binge influenced market prices reflecting his improved chances.
Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer jumps to 26%8%
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending campaign aimed to boost his profile and chances in the crowded Democratic field, significantly impacting his market probability and positioning him as a top contender.
Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 42%16%
Tom Steyer's unprecedented $115 million ad spending campaign saturated media markets, boosting his visibility and market price. Despite heavy spending, his campaign faced skepticism about translating money into votes.
Tom Steyer surges in polls with focus on affordability, peaking mid-April
Tom Steyer surges to 59%39%
Tom Steyer's campaign peaked in mid-April with a strong focus on affordability, briefly overtaking other candidates before his support began to decline in May.
Tom Steyer's campaign spending reaches record levels
Tom Steyer surges to 70%60%
Steyer's massive ad spending spree significantly impacted his visibility and polling, though it faced criticism from rivals.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Tom Steyer peaks in polling after heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Steyer’s market price surged to a peak of 70% reflecting his dominant ad campaign and perceived frontrunner status in the Democratic field.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, boosting Hilton's profile and market price in the governor's race, especially among Republican voters.
Tom Steyer's ad blitz peaks, boosting his polling numbers
Tom Steyer surges to 70%54%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads led to a peak in his market price, reflecting increased voter attention and support during this period.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats feared their large number of candidates could split votes, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in the top-two primary system, impacting market prices for GOP candidates.
Tom Steyer campaign surges in market
Tom Steyer surges to 70%44%
Heavy advertising spending by Tom Steyer led to a significant increase in his market price.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 58%42%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, temporarily boosting his market price despite a crowded field and no clear frontrunner emerging.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor and critic of Governor Newsom, announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat focused on homelessness and crime, which shifted some voter attention and market support.
Tom Steyer's campaign peaks with record ad spending and polling
Tom Steyer surges to 70%41%
Steyer's campaign reached a peak in market price due to his heavy spending and growing grassroots support, making him a top contender in the Democratic field.
Xavier Becerra gains traction in California governor’s race emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra jumps to 10%7%
Following Eric Swalwell’s exit, Xavier Becerra surged in the gubernatorial race by highlighting his extensive public service record and positioning himself as a steady, experienced leader. This momentum shift was reflected in rising polling and market prices for Becerra.
Xavier Becerra gains traction emphasizing experience and trust
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%18%
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra surged in the crowded governor’s race by highlighting his extensive public service record, gaining voter trust and improving poll standings.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after debate eligibility clarification
Xavier Becerra surges to 21%21%
The California Secretary of State clarified that Xavier Becerra met the debate eligibility criteria, leading to a surge in his market price from single digits to the low‑20s.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Eric Swalwell plunges to 0%49%
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, leading to rapid loss of support from Democratic leaders and staff resignations. This event dramatically reshaped the race, opening space for other candidates to gain ground.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Eric Swalwell abruptly ended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, causing a significant reshuffle in the Democratic field and boosting other candidates like Xavier Becerra.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 20%15%
Eric Swalwell's departure from the race amid allegations led to a consolidation of Democratic support around Xavier Becerra, boosting Becerra's polling and market price.
Eric Swalwell exits California governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Swalwell's withdrawal reshaped the Democratic field, benefiting candidates like Xavier Becerra and impacting market dynamics.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race amid allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%20%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following sexual assault allegations, causing a reshuffling of support among Democratic candidates and benefiting Xavier Becerra's market position significantly.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 23%19%
Eric Swalwell, an early Democratic frontrunner, abruptly ended his campaign following multiple sexual misconduct allegations, causing a significant reshuffle in the Democratic field. This event boosted Xavier Becerra's standing as Democratic voters consolidated behind him, reflected in his rising market price.
Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor race amid allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 26%21%
Eric Swalwell exited the race following allegations of sexual misconduct, which led to a surge in support and market price for Xavier Becerra as he absorbed Swalwell's former supporters.
CBS poll shows Becerra rising, Steyer and Hilton competitive in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 34%18%
A CBS poll indicated Becerra gaining ground with 13%, while Steyer and Hilton remained competitive, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the primary.
Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell abruptly ended his gubernatorial campaign following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. His exit reshaped the race, benefiting candidates like Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and affected market dynamics.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 59%41%
Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and chances, dominating media presence and influencing market prices despite criticism of trying to buy the election.
Sexual misconduct allegations surface against Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell plunges to 0%49%
Multiple women, including a former staffer, accused Eric Swalwell of sexual misconduct, leading to a rapid collapse of his campaign. The allegations triggered investigations and widespread calls for him to drop out of the governor's race.
Allegations cause Eric Swalwell to exit California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 20%15%
Eric Swalwell withdrew from the governor's race following credible sexual assault allegations, which reshaped the Democratic field and allowed Xavier Becerra to surge in support.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton over Chad Bianco in governor race
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%6%
Trump's endorsement of Hilton shifted Republican support away from Bianco, affecting Bianco's campaign momentum and market prices, and solidifying Hilton as the GOP frontrunner.
Xavier Becerra’s price jumps 17 points after debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 17%17%
Becerra delivered a strong showing in the first televised debate, resonating with voters and driving his market price up sharply from single digits to the mid‑teens.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 9%3%
President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Steve Hilton, boosting his market price from 6 % to 9 % (price before = 6, price after = 9).
Public Policy Institute of California poll shows tight race among top candidates
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%14%
A late March to early April poll by PPIC showed a close contest among Democrats Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting uncertainty and competitive dynamics in the race.
Trump endorses Steve Hilton over Chad Bianco in California governor race
Steve Hilton rises to 9%3%
President Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, bypassing Chad Bianco, reshaping the Republican primary dynamics and boosting Hilton's campaign momentum.
Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 22%27%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and consolidating conservative support in the gubernatorial race, impacting the Republican field dynamics.
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 60%11%
Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton boosted Hilton's profile and consolidated Republican support, significantly impacting the race by positioning Hilton as the leading GOP candidate.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 9%2%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting his profile and support among conservative voters ahead of the primary and general elections.
President Donald Trump endorses Republican Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile and campaign in the California governor’s race. This endorsement helped consolidate Republican support and increased Hilton's market standing.
President Trump endorses GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton rises to 6%3%
President Trump publicly endorsed Republican candidate Steve Hilton, giving the campaign a major boost and lifting Hilton’s market price from the low single digits to double‑digits.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 9%3%
President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's campaign and increasing his visibility and support among Republican voters. This endorsement was significant in the crowded Republican field and affected market prices.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 25%10%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, boosting his campaign and consolidating GOP support. The endorsement was seen as pivotal in the crowded primary and increased Hilton's visibility and polling numbers.
Emerson College poll shows Becerra surging after Swalwell drops out
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Following Eric Swalwell's exit, a new poll showed Becerra tied with Katie Porter at 10%, marking a significant rise in support and boosting his campaign momentum.
Matt Mahan’s campaign struggles with strategist departure amid low polling
Matt Mahan drops to 8%12%
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s campaign faced internal turmoil with the departure of his top strategist due to strategic differences, coinciding with weak polling numbers and fundraising challenges, impacting his market price.
Xavier Becerra announces candidacy for California governor
Xavier Becerra rises to 5%1%
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra entered the race, positioning himself as a pro-education, affordability-focused Democrat. His entry added a strong contender to the Democratic field, eventually leading to a surge in polling.
Xavier Becerra intensifies campaign with focus on affordability and readiness
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra ramped up his campaign efforts, emphasizing his experience and policy specifics to appeal to voters ahead of the June primary. This strategic push helped increase his market price significantly.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 49%31%
Steyer's unprecedented spending on ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a top contender despite no prior elected office experience.
Butch Ware's lawsuit to restore ballot access rejected by Sacramento judge
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Butch Ware's legal challenge to regain his place on the primary ballot was rejected, confirming his disqualification and impacting his market price negatively.
Chad Bianco gains national attention after seizing 650,000 ballots in election investigation
Chad Bianco rises to 9%2%
Bianco's controversial seizure of ballots in Riverside County brought him national spotlight and scrutiny, affecting his campaign's public perception and polling.
Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots in election fraud investigation
Chad Bianco rises to 10%2%
Bianco's department seized over 650,000 ballots from a 2025 special election, drawing national attention and controversy. This action affected his campaign perception and market pricing, reflecting concerns and support among voters.
Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud investigation
Chad Bianco dips to 3%4%
Bianco's seizure of ballots from a 2025 special election brought national attention and controversy, raising questions about election integrity and impacting his campaign's public perception.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots, thrusting him into the governor’s spotlight
Chad Bianco rises to 3%2%
Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots in Riverside County drew national media attention, raising his market price from 1 % to 3 % (price before = 1, price after = 3).
Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots in election fraud probe
Chad Bianco plunges to 8%42%
Riverside County Sheriff and gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco seized ballots from a 2025 special election, claiming investigation into voter fraud. This controversial action raised his profile but also drew criticism and legal challenges, influencing his campaign dynamics and market support.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes over 650,000 ballots amid election investigation
Chad Bianco plunges to 2%48%
Chad Bianco, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, seized a large number of ballots from a 2025 special election, triggering legal battles and controversy. This event raised his profile but also led to criticism and may have impacted his polling negatively.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco seizes 650,000 ballots amid election fraud claims
Chad Bianco plunges to 8%42%
Chad Bianco, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, seized ballots from a 2025 election to investigate alleged discrepancies, drawing national attention and legal challenges. This action increased his profile but also sparked controversy and criticism.
Chad Bianco's department seizes over 650,000 Riverside County ballots amid election fraud claims
Chad Bianco drops to 5%5%
Bianco's investigation into alleged ballot discrepancies brought national attention and controversy, impacting his campaign and market support negatively.
Public Policy Institute of California releases poll showing tight three‑way race
Katie Porter jumps to 34%9%
The poll placed Steyer, Porter, and Republican candidates within a few points, prompting a market correction that lowered Steyer’s price and lifted Porter’s.
Court upholds removal of Green Party candidate Butch Ware from governor ballot
Butch Ware dips to 0%1%
A judge upheld the Secretary of State’s decision to keep Green Party candidate Butch Ware off the June primary ballot, effectively ending his campaign and dropping his market price to zero.
California Secretary of State removes Butch Ware from primary ballot
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Butch Ware was disqualified from the June primary ballot due to failure to file correct tax returns on time, forcing him to continue his campaign as a write-in candidate, limiting his visibility and chances.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump’s endorsement boosted the Republican’s profile, pulling votes from moderate Republicans and contributing to a modest rise in Hilton’s price after a long slump.
Katie Porter’s campaign suffers after staff controversy
Katie Porter dips to 11%2%
Reports of internal staff disputes and criticism of Porter’s leadership led to a modest decline in her market price as donors grew cautious.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan plunges to 17%29%
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, gaining initial market attention but later losing ground as the race evolved.
Katie Porter announces run for California governor
Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter entered the governor's race emphasizing affordability and consumer protection, gaining early attention as a progressive Democratic candidate.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Polling shows tight race among Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco
Late winter polling indicated a close contest among Democratic candidates Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting market volatility and uncertainty.
Butch Ware discusses Green Party gubernatorial campaign and progressive platform
In an interview, Butch Ware outlined his campaign goals including affordable housing, universal healthcare, and disrupting the two-party system, emphasizing grassroots support and social justice.
Eric Swalwell drops out after sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra surges to 21%20%
Following multiple assault accusations, Swalwell withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress, causing a sharp decline in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining Democrats, especially Xavier Becerra.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 27%22%
Swalwell abruptly ended his campaign following serious allegations, causing a rapid decline in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates.
Tom Steyer ramps up spending in California governor race
Tom Steyer rises to 20%2%
Billionaire Tom Steyer increased his campaign spending dramatically, saturating media markets with ads, which boosted his polling and market price despite not breaking away as a clear frontrunner.
Public Policy Institute of California releases poll showing tight four‑way race
The poll, released just before the primary, showed Steyer, Porter, Hilton and Bianco within a few points, prompting a brief rally for each as voters reassessed viability.
Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, giving the outsider a brief surge in market price.
Tom Steyer spends $66 million on California governor's race campaign
Billionaire Tom Steyer significantly increased his campaign spending, boosting his profile and polling in the Democratic primary, influencing market dynamics.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends campaign
Xavier Becerra dips to 0%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading him to suspend his gubernatorial bid and later resign from Congress, causing his market price to plummet to near zero.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, causing a sharp collapse in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates, notably benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Katie Porter draws attention with explicit anti-Trump message at California Democratic Convention
Katie Porter dips to 12%3%
Democratic candidate Katie Porter held up a sign reading “F**k TRUMP” during her speech, emphasizing opposition to Trump but receiving mixed reactions. This event highlighted her combative style and affected her campaign's public perception.
Poll shows tight three‑way race among Steyer, Porter, and Hilton
A Public Policy Institute of California poll revealed Steyer, Porter, and Hilton within a few points of each other, causing volatility across their market prices as voters reassessed the race dynamics.
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Steyer’s ad spend peaks, TV buys hit $115 million
Tom Steyer surges to 59%37%
The release of a spending report confirming $115 million in ad buys reinforced Steyer’s financial dominance, pushing his price up from 22% to 59% in a single week.
National Governors Association meeting unravels after Trump excludes Democrats
The exclusion of Democratic governors from a White House event highlighted the intense partisan polarization affecting the political landscape.
Steve Hilton jumps to the lead in California governor's race
Republican Steve Hilton surged to the lead in polls for the California governor race, gaining significant support among Republican and independent voters. His campaign emphasized reducing taxes and ending Democratic dominance in the state.
Steve Hilton surges to lead in California governor race poll
A new poll showed Steve Hilton taking a surprise lead in the crowded California governor's race, boosting his profile and market odds as a leading Republican candidate.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Chad Bianco officially launched his campaign focusing on public safety, reversing criminal justice reforms, and cutting regulations, positioning himself as a conservative alternative in the race. This announcement marked his entry into the crowded field and began his campaign momentum.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surges to 24% ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 24%24%
A late‑February poll gave Becerra a notable boost, reflected in a rapid price increase from near‑zero to the mid‑20s, marking the start of his comeback.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democratic insiders expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance, increasing uncertainty in the race.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announces run for California governor
Chad Bianco jumps to 9%8%
Chad Bianco entered the race as a Republican candidate, initially gaining some market support but later declining as Democratic candidates consolidated support.
Former LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announces 2026 governor run
Antonio Villaraigosa rises to 5%3%
Villaraigosa officially entered the race, giving the former mayor a brief bump in market price before the field condensed.
California Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election under California's top-two primary system. This raised the profile of Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, affecting their market prices.
Butch Ware hosts 'Revolutionary Rally' to promote California governor candidacy
Butch Ware plunges to 0%50%
Green Party candidate Butch Ware held a rally to promote his gubernatorial campaign, highlighting his progressive platform and grassroots support, though he failed to qualify for the primary ballot later.
Eric Swalwell withdraws amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 12%23%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop for candidates perceived as his nearest competitors, especially Tom Steyer and Katie Porter.
Xavier Becerra participates in Commonwealth Club forum outlining economic opportunity focus
Xavier Becerra jumps to 16%13%
Becerra emphasized economic opportunity and healthcare as central themes, reinforcing his campaign message and boosting his profile among voters.
Eric Swalwell withdraws amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer dips to 22%2%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, causing his own price to collapse and shifting support to Steyer and Porter, which helped Steyer’s price dip slightly while Porter’s fell modestly.
Swalwell resigns from Congress amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 44%26%
The sudden exit of a leading Democratic contender removed a potential top‑two finisher, causing a sharp drop in his market price and redistributing support to remaining candidates.
Katie Porter faces criticism over campaign conduct in California governor race
Katie Porter plunges to 5%15%
Porter faced negative media coverage regarding her treatment of staff and a tense TV interview, which contributed to a decline in her market price.
Matt Mahan campaign gains momentum
Matt Mahan surges to 54%35%
Market confidence in Mahan surged following early campaign activities and media attention.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as centrist Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy for governor, positioning himself as a pragmatic centrist focused on public safety, homelessness, and affordability. His entry added a new dynamic to the crowded Democratic field.
Rep. Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor's race amid sexual assault allegations
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, which he denies, and announced his resignation from Congress. His exit reshaped the Democratic field, allowing rivals like Steyer and Porter to vie for his supporters, impacting market prices for those candidates.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom on homelessness and crime, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market dynamics.
Matt Mahan campaign faces initial volatility
Matt Mahan plunges to 9%37%
Following his entry, the market adjusted expectations for Mahan's candidacy, leading to a significant price drop.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan entered the race as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, focusing on homelessness and crime. His entry added to the crowded field and influenced market dynamics for his chances.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan's entry as a moderate Democrat and Newsom critic added a new dynamic to the race, briefly raising his market price as he positioned himself as a 'fixer' for California's issues.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Mahan, a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, announced his candidacy, briefly raising his market probability as he positioned himself as a pragmatic alternative in the crowded field.
Kamala Harris' vetting team questioned Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Israeli ties
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%44%
During the 2024 VP vetting, Kamala Harris' team asked Josh Shapiro if he had been an Israeli agent, sparking controversy. While not directly related to the governor race, it affected Harris' political standing and market price.
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso decides against running for California governor
Rick Caruso drops to 0%13%
Caruso announced he would not run for governor, causing his market price to fall from 13 % to 0 % (price before = 13, price after = 0).
Rick Caruso officially declines to run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Caruso's formal announcement not to run ended speculation and removed a significant moderate candidate, impacting the race dynamics and market prices for his chances.
Billionaire Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Rick Caruso, a potential heavyweight candidate, announced he would not run for governor or mayor, removing a significant contender from the race and affecting the dynamics among other candidates.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Caruso’s decision to not enter the gubernatorial race removed a potential high-profile candidate, affecting the dynamics and market expectations for the election.
Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in California governor general election
Concerns grew among Democrats that the crowded field could split the vote, enabling two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market perceptions of Democratic candidates' chances.
Tom Steyer’s $115 million ad‑buy disclosed, dwarfing rivals
Tom Steyer surges to 35%22%
The massive ad spend raised Steyer’s visibility, lifting his price from the low single digits to the mid‑30s as voters perceived him as the best‑funded candidate.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan announced his candidacy positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, briefly impacting his market price before declining.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, which introduced a new contender and influenced market prices for his outcome.
Nicole Shanahan criticizes California government response to wildfires
Nicole Shanahan dips to 0%1%
Nicole Shanahan publicly criticized California officials for inadequate wildfire preparedness despite record rainfall, highlighting government negligence. This event coincides with her low market price and limited campaign presence.
Eric Swalwell announces candidacy on national TV
Steve Hilton plunges to 15%34%
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” briefly boosting his market price before the later scandal.
Poll shows Tom Steyer leading Democratic field
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%8%
A Public Policy Institute of California poll placed Steyer ahead of Porter and Becerra, prompting a sharp price rise from 16% to 24% as the market reacted to the perceived front‑runner status.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra rises to 6%2%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative, improving his standing among Democratic voters and sparking a steady rise in his market price through January and February.
Debate eligibility controversy erupts among candidates
A dispute over which candidates qualified for the June primary debate highlighted the fragmented field and caused short‑term volatility in several candidates’ prices.
Governor Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power to Board of Education
Newsom's proposal to reduce the State Superintendent's duties and increase the governor-appointed Board's power stirred political debate, indirectly affecting perceptions of candidates linked to education policy.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan joins California governor's race
Matt Mahan plunges to 20%26%
Mahan entered the race as a moderate Democrat, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field and criticizing Newsom's policies.
Billionaire Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%49%
Rick Caruso, a prominent potential candidate, publicly decided not to run for governor or Los Angeles mayor, removing a major contender from the race and impacting market expectations for his chances.
Chad Bianco seizes half‑million ballots in special election
Chad Bianco rises to 3%2%
Bianco’s controversial ballot‑seizure action drew statewide media attention, reinforcing his law‑and‑order brand and slightly improving his market price.
Matt Mahan announces candidacy for governor
Matt Mahan drops to 32%14%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness, giving his market price a modest rise as voters considered a new alternative.
Katie Porter announces candidacy for governor
Katie Porter surges to 19%19%
Porter’s entry added a high‑profile progressive to the field, lifting her price from 0% to 19% as she captured attention from liberal voters.
Tom Steyer launches $115 million advertising blitz
Tom Steyer surges to 34%22%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began spending over $115 million on TV and digital ads, dramatically raising his visibility and pushing his market price upward during April.
Tom Steyer’s ad spend peaks, market price spikes to 36%
Tom Steyer jumps to 36%14%
Steyer’s continued heavy advertising pushed his market price to a high of 36% in mid‑December, reflecting growing voter awareness of his platform.
Matt Mahan announces gubernatorial bid in San Jose
Matt Mahan drops to 32%14%
San Jose mayor Matt Mahan entered the race, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat focused on homelessness and public safety, which gave his campaign an initial price boost.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches $115 million ad blitz in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%57%
Steyer’s unprecedented spending flood of TV and digital ads caused a sharp rise in his market price, peaking in mid‑April before a later decline as voters questioned the impact of money.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 4%4%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price after a period of near‑zero support.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters governor’s race
Matt Mahan plunges to 19%27%
Mahan’s entry shifted attention to a moderate Democrat, causing his own price to spike briefly before a steady decline as the field remained crowded.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%10%
Steyer began a heavy spending spree on TV and radio ads, aiming to dominate the race and gain ground among Democratic voters, impacting his market price positively.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, joins the governor’s race
Matt Mahan surges to 17%17%
Mahan’s entry gave a moderate Democrat a platform, causing his price to rise sharply from 0% to 17% as he attracted voters dissatisfied with Newsom’s policies.
Tom Steyer begins $115 million ad blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 23%10%
Steyer’s unprecedented spending on TV and digital ads raised his visibility and temporarily lifted his market price, though the surge was modest relative to the amount spent.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Stephen Cloobeck drops out of California governor race and endorses Eric Swalwell
Stephen Cloobeck plunges to 0%49%
Cloobeck exited the race and endorsed fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell, consolidating support and affecting market prices for both candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor
Eric Swalwell entered the race as a prominent Democrat, initially impacting the market by adding competition and splitting Democratic support.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor amid controversy
Rep. Eric Swalwell announced his gubernatorial bid on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, entering a crowded Democratic field despite facing a federal criminal referral for alleged mortgage and tax fraud. His entry added complexity to the race and affected market prices for other candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Eric Swalwell entered the race as a prominent Democratic candidate, initially impacting the market by splitting Democratic support and affecting other candidates' prices.
Eric Swalwell announces gubernatorial bid, joining crowded Democratic field
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell’s entry added a high‑profile name to the race, prompting a modest rise in his own odds and a slight dip for other Democrats as voters reassessed the field.
Eric Swalwell suspends gubernatorial campaign following sexual assault allegations
Swalwell's sudden exit from the race after sexual assault allegations caused a major reordering of the Democratic field.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Eric Swalwell announced his gubernatorial bid amid controversy over a federal criminal referral for alleged mortgage fraud. His entry added a prominent Democrat to the race, impacting market prices for several candidates.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California Governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell officially entered the 2026 California governor's race, positioning himself as a leading Democratic contender with strong name recognition and a focus on fighting President Trump. This announcement marked the start of a competitive Democratic primary.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Eric Swalwell's entry added a new dynamic to the crowded Democratic field, initially impacting market prices for several candidates including Becerra and Steyer.
Eric Swalwell announces run for California governor on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Eric Swalwell entered the crowded Democratic field, focusing on affordability and positioning himself as a fighter against high costs. His entry added competition, impacting the market shares of other Democratic candidates including Becerra and Steyer.
Sexual assault allegations surface against Eric Swalwell
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Allegations reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN caused Swalwell to suspend his campaign, leading to a sharp drop in support for his allies and a redistribution of votes among remaining candidates.
Tom Steyer launches campaign for California governor
Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer officially entered the race, focusing on affordability and promising to build affordable housing. His campaign launch increased his market presence from near zero to 49%.
Tom Steyer announces run for California governor
Billionaire Tom Steyer entered the crowded Democratic field with a populist message focusing on affordability, climate change, and taxing the wealthy, significantly impacting the race dynamics.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches bid for California governor
Tom Steyer, billionaire climate activist and businessman, officially entered the race with a focus on affordability and making corporations pay their fair share. His entry added a significant contender to the crowded Democratic field.
Tom Steyer announces candidacy for California governor
Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist and progressive activist, officially launched his campaign for California governor, emphasizing affordability and climate action. His entry added a significant contender to the Democratic field, initially polling around 49% but later fluctuating.
Tom Steyer officially announces candidacy for California governor
Tom Steyer jumps to 18%14%
Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmental activist and former presidential candidate, launched his campaign focusing on affordability, housing, and making corporations pay their fair share. His entry energized the Democratic field and caused a notable increase in his market support from 4% to 18%.
Tom Steyer launches run for California governor pledging to tackle affordability crisis
Tom Steyer entered the race focusing on affordability, initially gaining significant market support as a prominent Democratic candidate.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton plunges to 19%30%
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton received Trump's endorsement, boosting his profile among Republican voters but with limited impact on overall market probability given California's Democratic lean.
Tom Steyer emerges as a major spender in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began a significant advertising spending spree, saturating media markets to boost his profile. This spending increased his market price and positioned him as a leading Democratic contender.
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Tom Steyer begins heavy ad spending in California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer started a massive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his candidacy, which increased his market price significantly.
Tom Steyer's campaign spending spree intensifies in California governor race
Tom Steyer jumps to 28%10%
Billionaire Tom Steyer significantly increased his campaign spending, saturating media markets with ads to boost his profile and chances in the crowded Democratic field, impacting his market price positively.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor race
Tom Steyer began a large spending spree on TV and radio ads to boost his campaign for governor, outspending rivals by a wide margin. This spending increased his visibility and polling but did not establish him as a clear frontrunner, influencing market prices.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Steyer's unprecedented spending on TV and radio ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a leading Democratic contender despite no prior elected office.
Tom Steyer surges in early polls for California governor race
Tom Steyer's campaign gained early momentum with strong polling numbers reaching 49%, reflecting initial voter interest and fundraising efforts that positioned him as a leading candidate.
Chad Bianco files paperwork to run for governor
Chad Bianco rises to 1%1%
The Riverside County sheriff’s entry added a Republican option, pulling a small share of votes from the Democratic pool and nudging his price upward from 0% to 1% as the field widened.
Butch Ware announces 2026 California governor candidacy
Butch Ware plunges to 1%49%
Butch Ware, a Green Party candidate and academic, announced his run for California governor, aiming to break the two-party duopoly with a progressive platform. His campaign attracted attention but he failed to qualify for the primary ballot, continuing as a write-in candidate.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%8%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a surge of national attention, lifting his price from single digits to a brief peak of 14% before settling back near 9% as the novelty faded.
Tom Steyer launches $115 million advertising blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 22%9%
Billionaire Tom Steyer began a massive TV and digital ad campaign, dramatically increasing his name recognition and causing his market price to climb sharply in November.
Senator Alex Padilla rules out run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 0%50%
Senator Alex Padilla officially announced he would not run for governor, removing a strong potential Democratic contender from the race and impacting the dynamics among Democratic candidates.
Sen. Alex Padilla says he will not run for California governor
Alex Padilla plunges to 0%23%
Senator Padilla announced he would not run for governor, eliminating him from contention and causing his market price to fall to zero.
Senator Alex Padilla announces he will not run for California governor in 2026
Alex Padilla plunges to 25%25%
Senator Alex Padilla ended speculation about his candidacy by publicly declaring he would remain in the U.S. Senate, removing a major potential Democratic contender from the governor's race and impacting market expectations.
Tom Steyer launches billionaire‑funded advertising blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%6%
Steyer disclosed spending over $115 million on TV and digital ads, causing his price to jump from the low‑teens to double‑digits as voters perceived a serious contender.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton dips to 10%3%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a national boost, temporarily raising his market price before the candidate’s later decline as the primary field narrowed.
Steve Hilton announces candidacy for California governor with Trump endorsement
Steve Hilton plunges to 10%39%
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton entered the race with an endorsement from President Donald Trump, boosting his profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price.
Rep. Randy Feenstra announces run for governor in Iowa, highlighting fundraising trends
Tom Steyer dips to 45%4%
Feenstra's announcement underscored a wave of high‑profile fundraising in gubernatorial contests, prompting analysts to compare spending dynamics in California's crowded field.
Stephen Cloobeck enters California governor race with pro-business message
Businessman Stephen Cloobeck announced his candidacy, bringing significant funding and a pro-business platform, briefly impacting the Democratic field before his withdrawal.
Xavier Becerra announces candidacy for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 5%5%
Becerra entered the race, giving the former health secretary a baseline of support that lifted his price from near‑zero to 5% as voters registered his name among many Democrats.
Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan rises to 48%2%
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan entered the race, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and drawing attention from centrist voters, which contributed to a slight rise in his market price.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton rises to 8%2%
President Trump publicly endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton for governor, boosting his visibility among Republican voters and prompting a modest price increase for his market share.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches gubernatorial bid on Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell’s high‑visibility announcement added a prominent Democrat to the race, boosting early interest in the field and briefly lifting his own odds while pulling attention from other candidates.
Market reacts to crowded field and uncertainty
Xavier Becerra plunges to 7%43%
The market experienced a sharp correction across multiple candidates as the reality of a crowded primary field set in.
Billionaire Tom Steyer begins massive ad spending in governor race
Steyer used his personal fortune to saturate media with ads, becoming the top spender and a leading Democratic candidate, impacting his polling and market price.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan entered the crowded governor's race as a moderate Democrat and Newsom critic, emphasizing his record on homelessness and crime. His candidacy introduced a new contender with tech ties, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Swalwell launched his campaign on a late-night show, immediately becoming a top-tier contender in the crowded Democratic field.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Swalwell launched his campaign for governor, adding a prominent figure to the crowded field and initially increasing the market's uncertainty about the Democratic vote split.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump-era policies. His entry initially boosted his chances and affected the dynamics among Democratic candidates.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces his bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for governor, immediately impacting the market as a major Democratic contender.
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