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icon for CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Politica·Midterms

CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera

icon for CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Politica·Midterms

CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera

Democratico 15-20% 41%

Vittoria Repubblicana 41%

Democratico 20-25% 40%

Democratico 10-15% 39%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Democratico 15-20% 41%

Vittoria Repubblicana 41%

Democratico 20-25% 40%

Democratico 10-15% 39%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Democratico 30%+

Democratico 30%+

$0 Vol.

38%

icon for Democratico 25-30%

Democratico 25-30%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Democratico 20-25%

Democratico 20-25%

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Democratico 15-20%

Democratico 15-20%

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Democratico 10-15%

Democratico 10-15%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Democratico 5-10%

Democratico 5-10%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Democratico 0-5%

Democratico 0-5%

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Vittoria Repubblicana

Vittoria Repubblicana

$0 Vol.

41%

The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 41st congressional district, redrawn boundaries following 2025 redistricting have shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean while preserving pockets of Republican strength in Orange County areas. Incumbent Linda Sánchez advanced from the June primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons in a tight top-two contest, reflecting competitive voter registration and turnout patterns. With the November general election two months away, trader pricing on victory margins remains balanced near even odds because fundraising, local endorsements, and potential national economic or turnout variables could narrow or widen the final spread. Scheduled campaign events and any late polling shifts in battleground precincts may influence separation between the candidates.

The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In California's 41st congressional district, redrawn boundaries following 2025 redistricting have shifted the seat toward a Democratic lean while preserving pockets of Republican strength in Orange County areas. Incumbent Linda Sánchez advanced from the June primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons in a tight top-two contest, reflecting competitive voter registration and turnout patterns. With the November general election two months away, trader pricing on victory margins remains balanced near even odds because fundraising, local endorsements, and potential national economic or turnout variables could narrow or widen the final spread. Scheduled campaign events and any late polling shifts in battleground precincts may influence separation between the candidates.

The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-41 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-41 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Correlati

icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto CA-42 con un margine del 20%-25%?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto CA-42 con un margine del 20%-25%?

41%
Sì
icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera CA-39 del 2026 con un margine del 25%-30%?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera CA-39 del 2026 con un margine del 25%-30%?

42%
Sì
icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-06 del 2026 con un margine del 25% o più?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-06 del 2026 con un margine del 25% o più?

42%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Democratico 15-20%" a 41%, seguito da "Vittoria Repubblicana" a 41%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 2, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è "Democratico 15-20%" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Vittoria Repubblicana" a 41%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CA-41 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.