Republican Julie Fedorchak secured re-election to North Dakota’s at-large House seat on November 3, 2026, with 57.4 percent of the vote against Democratic-NPL challenger Trygve Hammer’s 36.7 percent and smaller shares for independents, producing a confirmed 20.7-point margin. Traders have placed overwhelming probability on the 20-25 percent Republican margin bin because official tallies and multiple news organizations converged on this outcome across all 358 precincts. North Dakota’s consistent Republican lean in federal races and Fedorchak’s incumbency advantage anchored expectations, while limited Democratic gains elsewhere in the state did not alter the statewide result. Late certification or a successful recount challenge remain the primary scenarios that could still shift resolution, though current vote totals show no indication of such developments.