Traders price Hakeem Jeffries at 75.5 percent as the leading candidate for Speaker after the 2026 midterms, reflecting broad market consensus that Democrats will secure a House majority. Historical midterm patterns, where the president's party typically loses seats, combined with recent polling averages in competitive districts, underpin this positioning. Mike Johnson's 11.5 percent share signals limited expectations for sustained Republican control, while Katherine Clark's 8.9 percent accounts for possible Democratic leadership transitions. Other Republicans such as Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise remain longer shots tied to narrower paths for GOP retention. Scheduled events including primaries, candidate filings, and fall campaign developments could further adjust these implied probabilities before November.