The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola remains extremely close after November 3 voting, with Peltola holding a 0.3-point lead at 48.2% to 47.9% after 74% of ballots are counted. Minor candidates Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. together account for roughly 4%, keeping both major-party candidates below 50% and likely triggering ranked-choice voting tabulation. Lead changes occurred as precincts reported, and remaining ballots from rural areas continue to arrive. The Associated Press typically withholds a call in such narrow contests until vote totals stabilize and any ranked-choice process clarifies a majority winner. Traders monitoring this market focus on daily counting updates and procedural timelines that determine when sufficient certainty exists for a formal declaration.