**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in the November 3, 2026 general election for Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** Both secured their party nominations in the July 21 primaries with minimal opposition. The district’s Democratic lean—rated Solid D by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index around D+13—anchors trader expectations of a Grijalva victory, though the spread across Democrat margin buckets at 36.5% each and Republican win odds at the same level reflects uncertainty over the exact margin in a seat that shifted several points rightward in 2024. With the general election still months away and no major recent catalysts such as new polling or endorsements, current pricing captures the established partisan baseline rather than any late-breaking developments that could widen or narrow the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDemocratico 35-40% 38%
Democratico 50%+ 37%
Democratico 45-50% 37%
Democratico 40-45% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratico 50%+
37%
Democratico 45-50%
37%
Democratico 40-45%
37%
Democratico 35-40%
38%
Democratico 30-35%
36%
Democratico 25-30%
37%
Democratico 20-25%
36%
Democratico 10-20%
37%
Democratico 0-10%
37%
Vittoria Repubblicana
37%
Democratico 35-40% 38%
Democratico 50%+ 37%
Democratico 45-50% 37%
Democratico 40-45% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratico 50%+
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 45-50%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 35-40%
$0 Vol.
38%
Democratico 30-35%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democratico 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 20-25%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democratico 10-20%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democratico 0-10%
$0 Vol.
37%
Vittoria Repubblicana
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in the November 3, 2026 general election for Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** Both secured their party nominations in the July 21 primaries with minimal opposition. The district’s Democratic lean—rated Solid D by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index around D+13—anchors trader expectations of a Grijalva victory, though the spread across Democrat margin buckets at 36.5% each and Republican win odds at the same level reflects uncertainty over the exact margin in a seat that shifted several points rightward in 2024. With the general election still months away and no major recent catalysts such as new polling or endorsements, current pricing captures the established partisan baseline rather than any late-breaking developments that could widen or narrow the outcome.
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in the November 3, 2026 general election for Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** Both secured their party nominations in the July 21 primaries with minimal opposition. The district’s Democratic lean—rated Solid D by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index around D+13—anchors trader expectations of a Grijalva victory, though the spread across Democrat margin buckets at 36.5% each and Republican win odds at the same level reflects uncertainty over the exact margin in a seat that shifted several points rightward in 2024. With the general election still months away and no major recent catalysts such as new polling or endorsements, current pricing captures the established partisan baseline rather than any late-breaking developments that could widen or narrow the outcome.
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Adelita Grijalva (D), the incumbent who won a 2025 special election, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in the November 3, 2026 general election for Arizona’s 7th congressional district.** Both secured their party nominations in the July 21 primaries with minimal opposition. The district’s Democratic lean—rated Solid D by Cook Political Report with a partisan voting index around D+13—anchors trader expectations of a Grijalva victory, though the spread across Democrat margin buckets at 36.5% each and Republican win odds at the same level reflects uncertainty over the exact margin in a seat that shifted several points rightward in 2024. With the general election still months away and no major recent catalysts such as new polling or endorsements, current pricing captures the established partisan baseline rather than any late-breaking developments that could widen or narrow the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni alla Camera del distretto AZ-06 nel 2026 con un margine del 9-12%?
38%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni per la Camera dell’AZ-08 del 2026 con un margine del 15%-18%?
38%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del distretto AZ-01 del 2026 con un margine tra il 9% e il 12%?
38%
Sì
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