Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 House race for the November general election following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez, who trails at 16%. Wahab secured the special seat to complete the unexpired term with 53% of the vote after advancing from the June primaries with a wide margin in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Her win provides incumbency status heading into November, when the two Democrats will face off again for the full term under redrawn boundaries. Significant outside spending, including support for Hernandez from pro-Israel groups, narrowed the special election margin but failed to overcome Wahab's grassroots and party-backed position. Traders view these results and structural advantages as the primary drivers of current pricing for the general election outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$19,852 Vol.
$19,852 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aisha Wahab
83%
Melissa Hernandez
16%
$19,852 Vol.
$19,852 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aisha Wahab
$12,175 Vol.
83%
Melissa Hernandez
$7,677 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 House race for the November general election following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez, who trails at 16%. Wahab secured the special seat to complete the unexpired term with 53% of the vote after advancing from the June primaries with a wide margin in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Her win provides incumbency status heading into November, when the two Democrats will face off again for the full term under redrawn boundaries. Significant outside spending, including support for Hernandez from pro-Israel groups, narrowed the special election margin but failed to overcome Wahab's grassroots and party-backed position. Traders view these results and structural advantages as the primary drivers of current pricing for the general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volume
$19,852Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 House race for the November general election following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez, who trails at 16%. Wahab secured the special seat to complete the unexpired term with 53% of the vote after advancing from the June primaries with a wide margin in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Her win provides incumbency status heading into November, when the two Democrats will face off again for the full term under redrawn boundaries. Significant outside spending, including support for Hernandez from pro-Israel groups, narrowed the special election margin but failed to overcome Wahab's grassroots and party-backed position. Traders view these results and structural advantages as the primary drivers of current pricing for the general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,852Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 House race for the November general election following her August 18 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez, who trails at 16%. Wahab secured the special seat to complete the unexpired term with 53% of the vote after advancing from the June primaries with a wide margin in the heavily Democratic East Bay district. Her win provides incumbency status heading into November, when the two Democrats will face off again for the full term under redrawn boundaries. Significant outside spending, including support for Hernandez from pro-Israel groups, narrowed the special election margin but failed to overcome Wahab's grassroots and party-backed position. Traders view these results and structural advantages as the primary drivers of current pricing for the general election outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti