**Democratic nominee Randy Villegas holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-22 House race against incumbent Republican David Valadao, reflecting the impact of Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted the Central Valley district leftward.** The new lines reduced the prior Trump margin to roughly two points, turning a competitive seat into one rated toss-up to lean Democratic by most forecasters. In the June 2 top-two primary, Valadao captured 40.7% while Villegas secured 32.4% to advance over a more moderate Democrat; combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%. A subsequent July poll showed Villegas ahead 48-44, and Valadao faces headwinds over Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment district. These factors have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic hold or pickup on November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-22 House Election Winner
CA-22 House Election Winner
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
15%
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,239 Vol.
86%
Republican Party
$5,954 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Randy Villegas holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-22 House race against incumbent Republican David Valadao, reflecting the impact of Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted the Central Valley district leftward.** The new lines reduced the prior Trump margin to roughly two points, turning a competitive seat into one rated toss-up to lean Democratic by most forecasters. In the June 2 top-two primary, Valadao captured 40.7% while Villegas secured 32.4% to advance over a more moderate Democrat; combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%. A subsequent July poll showed Villegas ahead 48-44, and Valadao faces headwinds over Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment district. These factors have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic hold or pickup on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$12,192Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Randy Villegas holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-22 House race against incumbent Republican David Valadao, reflecting the impact of Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted the Central Valley district leftward.** The new lines reduced the prior Trump margin to roughly two points, turning a competitive seat into one rated toss-up to lean Democratic by most forecasters. In the June 2 top-two primary, Valadao captured 40.7% while Villegas secured 32.4% to advance over a more moderate Democrat; combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%. A subsequent July poll showed Villegas ahead 48-44, and Valadao faces headwinds over Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment district. These factors have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic hold or pickup on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,192Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee Randy Villegas holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-22 House race against incumbent Republican David Valadao, reflecting the impact of Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted the Central Valley district leftward.** The new lines reduced the prior Trump margin to roughly two points, turning a competitive seat into one rated toss-up to lean Democratic by most forecasters. In the June 2 top-two primary, Valadao captured 40.7% while Villegas secured 32.4% to advance over a more moderate Democrat; combined Democratic primary support exceeded 59%. A subsequent July poll showed Villegas ahead 48-44, and Valadao faces headwinds over Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment district. These factors have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic hold or pickup on November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti