Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra extending his lead over Republican Steve Hilton to 60%-38% among likely voters as of early September 2026, driven by strong partisan loyalty and independent support amid focus on affordability concerns. This dynamic contributes to trader consensus around Becerra victory margins clustered between 15% and 30%, with probabilities spread across those bands reflecting uncertainty over turnout, regional voting patterns in battleground areas like the Central Valley, and late-campaign messaging on taxes and regulation. The low probability assigned to a Hilton win aligns with California's long-term Democratic registration advantage and historical statewide results, while scheduled debates or economic data releases before November 3 could still shift exact margin expectations reflected in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoBecerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Becerra 40%+
11%
Becerra 35-40%
5%
Becerra 30-35%
10%
Becerra 25-30%
18%
Becerra 20-25%
22%
Becerra 15-20%
19%
Becerra 10-15%
10%
Becerra 0-10%
2%
Hilton vince
<1%
Becerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Becerra 40%+
$705 Vol.
11%
Becerra 35-40%
$294 Vol.
5%
Becerra 30-35%
$185 Vol.
10%
Becerra 25-30%
$469 Vol.
18%
Becerra 20-25%
$682 Vol.
22%
Becerra 15-20%
$836 Vol.
19%
Becerra 10-15%
$248 Vol.
10%
Becerra 0-10%
$146 Vol.
2%
Hilton vince
$178 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra extending his lead over Republican Steve Hilton to 60%-38% among likely voters as of early September 2026, driven by strong partisan loyalty and independent support amid focus on affordability concerns. This dynamic contributes to trader consensus around Becerra victory margins clustered between 15% and 30%, with probabilities spread across those bands reflecting uncertainty over turnout, regional voting patterns in battleground areas like the Central Valley, and late-campaign messaging on taxes and regulation. The low probability assigned to a Hilton win aligns with California's long-term Democratic registration advantage and historical statewide results, while scheduled debates or economic data releases before November 3 could still shift exact margin expectations reflected in current pricing.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$3,743Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra extending his lead over Republican Steve Hilton to 60%-38% among likely voters as of early September 2026, driven by strong partisan loyalty and independent support amid focus on affordability concerns. This dynamic contributes to trader consensus around Becerra victory margins clustered between 15% and 30%, with probabilities spread across those bands reflecting uncertainty over turnout, regional voting patterns in battleground areas like the Central Valley, and late-campaign messaging on taxes and regulation. The low probability assigned to a Hilton win aligns with California's long-term Democratic registration advantage and historical statewide results, while scheduled debates or economic data releases before November 3 could still shift exact margin expectations reflected in current pricing.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,743Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra extending his lead over Republican Steve Hilton to 60%-38% among likely voters as of early September 2026, driven by strong partisan loyalty and independent support amid focus on affordability concerns. This dynamic contributes to trader consensus around Becerra victory margins clustered between 15% and 30%, with probabilities spread across those bands reflecting uncertainty over turnout, regional voting patterns in battleground areas like the Central Valley, and late-campaign messaging on taxes and regulation. The low probability assigned to a Hilton win aligns with California's long-term Democratic registration advantage and historical statewide results, while scheduled debates or economic data releases before November 3 could still shift exact margin expectations reflected in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni governative del Nevada del 2026 con uno scarto tra 0% e 3%?
26%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni governative del Texas del 2026 con un margine dal 3% al 6%?
21%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni governative della Florida nel 2026 con un margine tra il 6% e il 9%?
30%
Sì
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti