California’s 11th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no Republican on the November general-election ballot. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus at 98.2% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or unforeseen disruption, such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting both Democratic nominees.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
3%
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,783 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no Republican on the November general-election ballot. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus at 98.2% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or unforeseen disruption, such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting both Democratic nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,763Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no Republican on the November general-election ballot. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus at 98.2% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or unforeseen disruption, such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting both Democratic nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,763Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 11th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+36 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democrats Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, leaving no Republican on the November general-election ballot. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration advantage and historical turnout patterns. Trader consensus at 98.2% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national shift or unforeseen disruption, such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting both Democratic nominees.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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