Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and is represented by incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner, who won the seat in 2024 and advanced from the August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote. Polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner leading Democratic challengers such as Carmela Conroy by margins of 6 to 8 points in head-to-head general election matchups, while multiple Democratic and independent candidates split the remaining primary support. These factors—incumbency, district composition, and the absence of a unified Democratic alternative—underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 67 percent implied probability ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-05 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
WA-05 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$32,063 Vol.
$32,063 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
67%
Partito Democratico
34%
$32,063 Vol.
$32,063 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$12,041 Vol.
67%
Partito Democratico
$20,022 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and is represented by incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner, who won the seat in 2024 and advanced from the August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote. Polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner leading Democratic challengers such as Carmela Conroy by margins of 6 to 8 points in head-to-head general election matchups, while multiple Democratic and independent candidates split the remaining primary support. These factors—incumbency, district composition, and the absence of a unified Democratic alternative—underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 67 percent implied probability ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,063Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and is represented by incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner, who won the seat in 2024 and advanced from the August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote. Polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner leading Democratic challengers such as Carmela Conroy by margins of 6 to 8 points in head-to-head general election matchups, while multiple Democratic and independent candidates split the remaining primary support. These factors—incumbency, district composition, and the absence of a unified Democratic alternative—underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 67 percent implied probability ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,063Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington state's 5th congressional district carries an R+5 partisan voting index and is represented by incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner, who won the seat in 2024 and advanced from the August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote. Polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner leading Democratic challengers such as Carmela Conroy by margins of 6 to 8 points in head-to-head general election matchups, while multiple Democratic and independent candidates split the remaining primary support. These factors—incumbency, district composition, and the absence of a unified Democratic alternative—underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 67 percent implied probability ahead of the November general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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