**Recent developments show the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but faces intense organized opposition.** Gov. Gavin Newsom and a coalition of business, education, and healthcare groups have rejected compromise offers, while billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $90 million on advertising and two competing ballot measures designed to nullify it if voters approve conflicting propositions. A mid-September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed 52% support for the tax—narrow and vulnerable—with counter-measures polling similarly. California’s history of ballot measures failing despite early leads, combined with the spending imbalance and risks of wealthy residents departing, underpins trader expectations that the measure will not pass.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
30% probabilità
$3,770,835 Vol.
$3,770,835 Vol.
25 giu 2026
Sì
30% probabilità
$3,770,835 Vol.
$3,770,835 Vol.
25 giu 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent developments show the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but faces intense organized opposition.** Gov. Gavin Newsom and a coalition of business, education, and healthcare groups have rejected compromise offers, while billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $90 million on advertising and two competing ballot measures designed to nullify it if voters approve conflicting propositions. A mid-September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed 52% support for the tax—narrow and vulnerable—with counter-measures polling similarly. California’s history of ballot measures failing despite early leads, combined with the spending imbalance and risks of wealthy residents departing, underpins trader expectations that the measure will not pass.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,770,835Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent developments show the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but faces intense organized opposition.** Gov. Gavin Newsom and a coalition of business, education, and healthcare groups have rejected compromise offers, while billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $90 million on advertising and two competing ballot measures designed to nullify it if voters approve conflicting propositions. A mid-September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed 52% support for the tax—narrow and vulnerable—with counter-measures polling similarly. California’s history of ballot measures failing despite early leads, combined with the spending imbalance and risks of wealthy residents departing, underpins trader expectations that the measure will not pass.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,770,835Data di fine
26 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Recent developments show the one-time 5% wealth tax (Proposition 40) qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but faces intense organized opposition.** Gov. Gavin Newsom and a coalition of business, education, and healthcare groups have rejected compromise offers, while billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $90 million on advertising and two competing ballot measures designed to nullify it if voters approve conflicting propositions. A mid-September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed 52% support for the tax—narrow and vulnerable—with counter-measures polling similarly. California’s history of ballot measures failing despite early leads, combined with the spending imbalance and risks of wealthy residents departing, underpins trader expectations that the measure will not pass.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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