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CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

icon for CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

NUOVO
Polymarket
NUOVO

Mike Thompson

$2,646 Vol.

84%

Eric Jones

$338 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a modest edge in the CA-04 general election market following the June 2 top-two primary, where the incumbent Democrat secured 41% and challenger Eric Jones advanced with 22% amid a field that included multiple Republicans. California's nonpartisan primary system and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 have produced an all-Democratic November matchup in a district that now incorporates more rural, traditionally conservative territory from counties such as Placer, Sutter, and Yuba. Jones, a younger former venture capitalist with progressive endorsements and youth-mobilization backing, has positioned the contest around generational change and turnout, while Thompson emphasizes his long record and moderate profile. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over how the altered electorate will respond to these intra-party dynamics ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,984
Data di fine
4 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a modest edge in the CA-04 general election market following the June 2 top-two primary, where the incumbent Democrat secured 41% and challenger Eric Jones advanced with 22% amid a field that included multiple Republicans. California's nonpartisan primary system and recent redistricting under Proposition 50 have produced an all-Democratic November matchup in a district that now incorporates more rural, traditionally conservative territory from counties such as Placer, Sutter, and Yuba. Jones, a younger former venture capitalist with progressive endorsements and youth-mobilization backing, has positioned the contest around generational change and turnout, while Thompson emphasizes his long record and moderate profile. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over how the altered electorate will respond to these intra-party dynamics ahead of the November 3 vote.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,984
Data di fine
4 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Domande frequenti

"CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mike Thompson" a 84%, seguito da "Eric Jones" a 17%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 84¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 6, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" è "Mike Thompson" a 84%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Eric Jones" a 17%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.