Incumbent Mike Thompson maintains a leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting his long tenure since 1999, strong name recognition, and prior reelection margins exceeding 66 percent in a district that advanced two Democrats from the June primary. Eric Jones, the younger venture-capital-backed challenger who finished second in that primary, trails amid questions over his ability to close the gap despite raising substantial funds and emphasizing generational mobilization. Both candidates face no Republican opposition in the November contest, consistent with the seat's Democratic lean, while the market assigns lower probabilities to other listed outcomes given the two-candidate structure. Limited new developments in the past month have left the positioning largely stable ahead of the general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-04 (per individuo)
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-04 (per individuo)
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Mike Thompson
66%
Eric Jones
31%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Mike Thompson
$5,823 Vol.
66%
Eric Jones
$1,575 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson maintains a leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting his long tenure since 1999, strong name recognition, and prior reelection margins exceeding 66 percent in a district that advanced two Democrats from the June primary. Eric Jones, the younger venture-capital-backed challenger who finished second in that primary, trails amid questions over his ability to close the gap despite raising substantial funds and emphasizing generational mobilization. Both candidates face no Republican opposition in the November contest, consistent with the seat's Democratic lean, while the market assigns lower probabilities to other listed outcomes given the two-candidate structure. Limited new developments in the past month have left the positioning largely stable ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$7,398Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson maintains a leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting his long tenure since 1999, strong name recognition, and prior reelection margins exceeding 66 percent in a district that advanced two Democrats from the June primary. Eric Jones, the younger venture-capital-backed challenger who finished second in that primary, trails amid questions over his ability to close the gap despite raising substantial funds and emphasizing generational mobilization. Both candidates face no Republican opposition in the November contest, consistent with the seat's Democratic lean, while the market assigns lower probabilities to other listed outcomes given the two-candidate structure. Limited new developments in the past month have left the positioning largely stable ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,398Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mike Thompson maintains a leading position in trader consensus for California's 4th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting his long tenure since 1999, strong name recognition, and prior reelection margins exceeding 66 percent in a district that advanced two Democrats from the June primary. Eric Jones, the younger venture-capital-backed challenger who finished second in that primary, trails amid questions over his ability to close the gap despite raising substantial funds and emphasizing generational mobilization. Both candidates face no Republican opposition in the November contest, consistent with the seat's Democratic lean, while the market assigns lower probabilities to other listed outcomes given the two-candidate structure. Limited new developments in the past month have left the positioning largely stable ahead of the general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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