Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field headed by Peter Sundin Soulé. California's 16th district carries a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and ratings such as the Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic designation. The combination of incumbency advantage, superior fundraising typical for the majority party in safe seats, and limited Republican opposition has produced trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of Democratic victory in the November general election. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sudden national political shift, or a health-related withdrawal—none of which have materialized in recent months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
$92,764 Vol.
$92,764 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$92,764 Vol.
$92,764 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$51,871 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$40,893 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field headed by Peter Sundin Soulé. California's 16th district carries a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and ratings such as the Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic designation. The combination of incumbency advantage, superior fundraising typical for the majority party in safe seats, and limited Republican opposition has produced trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of Democratic victory in the November general election. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sudden national political shift, or a health-related withdrawal—none of which have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$92,764Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field headed by Peter Sundin Soulé. California's 16th district carries a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and ratings such as the Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic designation. The combination of incumbency advantage, superior fundraising typical for the majority party in safe seats, and limited Republican opposition has produced trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of Democratic victory in the November general election. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sudden national political shift, or a health-related withdrawal—none of which have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$92,764Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field headed by Peter Sundin Soulé. California's 16th district carries a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and ratings such as the Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic designation. The combination of incumbency advantage, superior fundraising typical for the majority party in safe seats, and limited Republican opposition has produced trader consensus around a 95 percent probability of Democratic victory in the November general election. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sudden national political shift, or a health-related withdrawal—none of which have materialized in recent months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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