Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+10 Cook PVI where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, anchoring trader consensus at 80.5% for a GOP victory. The May 8 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field featuring well-funded Amanda McKinney ($451,000 cash on hand as of March) and state Sen. Matt Boehnke, backed by a former congressman, against Democrat John Duresky as the lone major-party challenger ($42,000 cash). Absent polls, the top-two primary on August 4 likely advances two Republicans to the November general, reinforcing historical GOP dominance despite the open race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
WA-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
81%
Partito Democratico
20%
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$13,712 Vol.
81%
Partito Democratico
$13,127 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+10 Cook PVI where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, anchoring trader consensus at 80.5% for a GOP victory. The May 8 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field featuring well-funded Amanda McKinney ($451,000 cash on hand as of March) and state Sen. Matt Boehnke, backed by a former congressman, against Democrat John Duresky as the lone major-party challenger ($42,000 cash). Absent polls, the top-two primary on August 4 likely advances two Republicans to the November general, reinforcing historical GOP dominance despite the open race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,839Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+10 Cook PVI where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, anchoring trader consensus at 80.5% for a GOP victory. The May 8 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field featuring well-funded Amanda McKinney ($451,000 cash on hand as of March) and state Sen. Matt Boehnke, backed by a former congressman, against Democrat John Duresky as the lone major-party challenger ($42,000 cash). Absent polls, the top-two primary on August 4 likely advances two Republicans to the November general, reinforcing historical GOP dominance despite the open race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,839Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with R+10 Cook PVI where Donald Trump won 59% in 2024, anchoring trader consensus at 80.5% for a GOP victory. The May 8 filing deadline revealed a crowded Republican primary field featuring well-funded Amanda McKinney ($451,000 cash on hand as of March) and state Sen. Matt Boehnke, backed by a former congressman, against Democrat John Duresky as the lone major-party challenger ($42,000 cash). Absent polls, the top-two primary on August 4 likely advances two Republicans to the November general, reinforcing historical GOP dominance despite the open race.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti