Jordan Bardella holds a strong lead in National Rally presidential nomination markets due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2025 embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban, which bars her from the 2027 race unless overturned on appeal. The Paris Court of Appeal is scheduled to rule on July 7, 2026, creating a near-term catalyst that traders view as likely to favor Bardella as the party’s standard-bearer. Recent polling averages show the 30-year-old RN president matching or exceeding Le Pen’s first-round support and performing strongly in runoffs against centrist or left candidates, reflecting his broader appeal and the party’s consistent lead in 2027 voting intention surveys. Le Pen retains a residual chance if her appeal succeeds, while the low probability for multiple candidates underscores expectations of unified RN backing for one nominee ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
Jordan Bardella 76%
Marine Le Pen 23%
Multiple Candidates 3.5%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
23 apr 2027
Jordan Bardella
76%
Marine Le Pen
23%
Multiple Candidates
3%
Jordan Bardella 76%
Marine Le Pen 23%
Multiple Candidates 3.5%
$11,093 Vol.
$11,093 Vol.
23 apr 2027
Jordan Bardella
$4,101 Vol.
76%
Marine Le Pen
$3,451 Vol.
23%
Multiple Candidates
$3,542 Vol.
3%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jordan Bardella holds a strong lead in National Rally presidential nomination markets due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2025 embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban, which bars her from the 2027 race unless overturned on appeal. The Paris Court of Appeal is scheduled to rule on July 7, 2026, creating a near-term catalyst that traders view as likely to favor Bardella as the party’s standard-bearer. Recent polling averages show the 30-year-old RN president matching or exceeding Le Pen’s first-round support and performing strongly in runoffs against centrist or left candidates, reflecting his broader appeal and the party’s consistent lead in 2027 voting intention surveys. Le Pen retains a residual chance if her appeal succeeds, while the low probability for multiple candidates underscores expectations of unified RN backing for one nominee ahead of the April 2027 vote.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$11,093Data di fine
23 apr 2027Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jordan Bardella holds a strong lead in National Rally presidential nomination markets due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2025 embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban, which bars her from the 2027 race unless overturned on appeal. The Paris Court of Appeal is scheduled to rule on July 7, 2026, creating a near-term catalyst that traders view as likely to favor Bardella as the party’s standard-bearer. Recent polling averages show the 30-year-old RN president matching or exceeding Le Pen’s first-round support and performing strongly in runoffs against centrist or left candidates, reflecting his broader appeal and the party’s consistent lead in 2027 voting intention surveys. Le Pen retains a residual chance if her appeal succeeds, while the low probability for multiple candidates underscores expectations of unified RN backing for one nominee ahead of the April 2027 vote.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,093Data di fine
23 apr 2027Mercato aperto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jordan Bardella holds a strong lead in National Rally presidential nomination markets due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2025 embezzlement conviction and five-year public office ban, which bars her from the 2027 race unless overturned on appeal. The Paris Court of Appeal is scheduled to rule on July 7, 2026, creating a near-term catalyst that traders view as likely to favor Bardella as the party’s standard-bearer. Recent polling averages show the 30-year-old RN president matching or exceeding Le Pen’s first-round support and performing strongly in runoffs against centrist or left candidates, reflecting his broader appeal and the party’s consistent lead in 2027 voting intention surveys. Le Pen retains a residual chance if her appeal succeeds, while the low probability for multiple candidates underscores expectations of unified RN backing for one nominee ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti