Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded her late father Raúl Grijalva in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential and House candidates. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Grijalva faces only Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., who ran unopposed in his July 21 primary and previously lost by wide margins. Grijalva’s substantial fundraising lead and established local support further reinforce trader consensus around the implied probability. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, significant health development, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,760 Vol.
$32,760 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$32,760 Vol.
$32,760 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$5,795 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$26,965 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded her late father Raúl Grijalva in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential and House candidates. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Grijalva faces only Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., who ran unopposed in his July 21 primary and previously lost by wide margins. Grijalva’s substantial fundraising lead and established local support further reinforce trader consensus around the implied probability. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, significant health development, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,760Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded her late father Raúl Grijalva in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential and House candidates. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Grijalva faces only Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., who ran unopposed in his July 21 primary and previously lost by wide margins. Grijalva’s substantial fundraising lead and established local support further reinforce trader consensus around the implied probability. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, significant health development, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,760Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded her late father Raúl Grijalva in a 2025 special election, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic presidential and House candidates. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Grijalva faces only Republican Daniel Butierez Sr., who ran unopposed in his July 21 primary and previously lost by wide margins. Grijalva’s substantial fundraising lead and established local support further reinforce trader consensus around the implied probability. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, significant health development, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti