**Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi’s strong position in the Democratic-leaning New York 3rd district drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85.5%.** Suozzi, who won a 2024 special election and secured the 2026 Democratic nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote on June 23, benefits from name recognition, moderate positioning, and substantial fundraising. The district’s partisan lean—covering affluent Long Island and Queens areas with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats—underpins the wide gap versus Republican nominee Mike LiPetri, who captured his primary but faces an uphill path in a seat last won by Republicans under different circumstances. No major late-breaking developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the implied probability aligned with historical incumbency advantages and baseline district performance in a midterm cycle. Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-03 House Election Winner
NY-03 House Election Winner
$11,095 Vol.
$11,095 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
15%
$11,095 Vol.
$11,095 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$4,266 Vol.
86%
Republican Party
$6,828 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi’s strong position in the Democratic-leaning New York 3rd district drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85.5%.**
Suozzi, who won a 2024 special election and secured the 2026 Democratic nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote on June 23, benefits from name recognition, moderate positioning, and substantial fundraising. The district’s partisan lean—covering affluent Long Island and Queens areas with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats—underpins the wide gap versus Republican nominee Mike LiPetri, who captured his primary but faces an uphill path in a seat last won by Republicans under different circumstances.
No major late-breaking developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the implied probability aligned with historical incumbency advantages and baseline district performance in a midterm cycle. Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$11,095Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi’s strong position in the Democratic-leaning New York 3rd district drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85.5%.**
Suozzi, who won a 2024 special election and secured the 2026 Democratic nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote on June 23, benefits from name recognition, moderate positioning, and substantial fundraising. The district’s partisan lean—covering affluent Long Island and Queens areas with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats—underpins the wide gap versus Republican nominee Mike LiPetri, who captured his primary but faces an uphill path in a seat last won by Republicans under different circumstances.
No major late-breaking developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the implied probability aligned with historical incumbency advantages and baseline district performance in a midterm cycle. Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,095Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi’s strong position in the Democratic-leaning New York 3rd district drives the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 85.5%.** Suozzi, who won a 2024 special election and secured the 2026 Democratic nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote on June 23, benefits from name recognition, moderate positioning, and substantial fundraising. The district’s partisan lean—covering affluent Long Island and Queens areas with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats—underpins the wide gap versus Republican nominee Mike LiPetri, who captured his primary but faces an uphill path in a seat last won by Republicans under different circumstances. No major late-breaking developments have shifted the race since the primaries, leaving the implied probability aligned with historical incumbency advantages and baseline district performance in a midterm cycle. Resolution occurs after the November 3, 2026, general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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