Democratic candidates Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate race and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in the open gubernatorial contest lead recent polling averages and ranked-choice voting simulations, driving trader consensus toward a Democratic sweep of both offices. Peltola holds a narrow edge over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in multiple surveys, including a late September NYT/Siena poll showing her ahead by seven points, while Kreiss-Tomkins maintains a lead over Republican Bernadette Wilson in final-round RCV tallies amid Republican vote fragmentation among additional candidates. Alaska’s ranked-choice system, combined with independent voter support and the open governor seat following term limits on the prior Republican incumbent, shapes these dynamics. Ratings from outlets such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report classify both contests as competitive toss-ups or leans Democratic, with limited recent shifts from campaign events or national conditions.