Trader consensus strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed count of incumbents who have announced retirement or pursuit of other office. Recent developments anchoring this positioning include March announcements from Steve Daines (Montana) on March 4 and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma) on March 24, bringing the total to seven—joining earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). No further retirements have emerged since, with primary filing deadlines passed in several states and the remaining 15 GOP-held Class II seats featuring incumbents signaling campaigns amid favorable midterm dynamics for the majority party. Nearby outcomes like eight (13.4%) or six (11.5%) reflect modest uncertainty over late surprises, but trader pricing reflects stability as the November 3 election approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7 65%
11 15.2%
8 14.6%
6 12.3%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
1%
5
6%
6
12%
7
65%
8
13%
9
3%
10
4%
11
15%
12+
1%
7 65%
11 15.2%
8 14.6%
6 12.3%
$73,731 Vol.
$73,731 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
6%
6
$26,450 Vol.
12%
7
$2,145 Vol.
65%
8
$1,599 Vol.
13%
9
$1,328 Vol.
3%
10
$1,265 Vol.
4%
11
$923 Vol.
15%
12+
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed count of incumbents who have announced retirement or pursuit of other office. Recent developments anchoring this positioning include March announcements from Steve Daines (Montana) on March 4 and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma) on March 24, bringing the total to seven—joining earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). No further retirements have emerged since, with primary filing deadlines passed in several states and the remaining 15 GOP-held Class II seats featuring incumbents signaling campaigns amid favorable midterm dynamics for the majority party. Nearby outcomes like eight (13.4%) or six (11.5%) reflect modest uncertainty over late surprises, but trader pricing reflects stability as the November 3 election approaches.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,731Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed count of incumbents who have announced retirement or pursuit of other office. Recent developments anchoring this positioning include March announcements from Steve Daines (Montana) on March 4 and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma) on March 24, bringing the total to seven—joining earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). No further retirements have emerged since, with primary filing deadlines passed in several states and the remaining 15 GOP-held Class II seats featuring incumbents signaling campaigns amid favorable midterm dynamics for the majority party. Nearby outcomes like eight (13.4%) or six (11.5%) reflect modest uncertainty over late surprises, but trader pricing reflects stability as the November 3 election approaches.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,731Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 67.5% implied probability, matching the confirmed count of incumbents who have announced retirement or pursuit of other office. Recent developments anchoring this positioning include March announcements from Steve Daines (Montana) on March 4 and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma) on March 24, bringing the total to seven—joining earlier decisions by Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, running for governor). No further retirements have emerged since, with primary filing deadlines passed in several states and the remaining 15 GOP-held Class II seats featuring incumbents signaling campaigns amid favorable midterm dynamics for the majority party. Nearby outcomes like eight (13.4%) or six (11.5%) reflect modest uncertainty over late surprises, but trader pricing reflects stability as the November 3 election approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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