Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 76.5% probability on that total. Primary drivers include prior retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and others, influenced by age, institutional pressures, and opportunities like gubernatorial bids. No major additional announcements have occurred in recent months, stabilizing trader consensus around the current figure. Additional retirements remain possible before filing deadlines, though historical patterns and the advanced stage of the cycle limit the scope for shifts toward higher totals like nine or eleven.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7 77%
11 9.7%
9 4.9%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
10%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 9.7%
9 4.9%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
10%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 76.5% probability on that total. Primary drivers include prior retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and others, influenced by age, institutional pressures, and opportunities like gubernatorial bids. No major additional announcements have occurred in recent months, stabilizing trader consensus around the current figure. Additional retirements remain possible before filing deadlines, though historical patterns and the advanced stage of the cycle limit the scope for shifts toward higher totals like nine or eleven.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 76.5% probability on that total. Primary drivers include prior retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and others, influenced by age, institutional pressures, and opportunities like gubernatorial bids. No major additional announcements have occurred in recent months, stabilizing trader consensus around the current figure. Additional retirements remain possible before filing deadlines, though historical patterns and the advanced stage of the cycle limit the scope for shifts toward higher totals like nine or eleven.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 76.5% probability on that total. Primary drivers include prior retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and others, influenced by age, institutional pressures, and opportunities like gubernatorial bids. No major additional announcements have occurred in recent months, stabilizing trader consensus around the current figure. Additional retirements remain possible before filing deadlines, though historical patterns and the advanced stage of the cycle limit the scope for shifts toward higher totals like nine or eleven.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il numero di membri repubblicani della Camera che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà compreso tra 36 e 39 inclusi?
84%
Sì
Il numero di membri democratici della Camera che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà compreso tra 20 e 23 inclusi?
41%
Sì
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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