Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in the 2026 cycle have encountered minimal organized opposition, with most advancing unopposed or with negligible challengers in states such as New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico. Four Democratic retirements—Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and one additional seat—remove those officeholders from primary contests entirely, while the remaining incumbents benefit from established party infrastructure and low intra-party dissent. Recent primary results, including the Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, reinforce the pattern of orderly nomination processes. Traders assign an 87% probability to zero losses, reflecting the absence of viable primary threats or late-cycle disruptions that could alter outcomes before filing deadlines close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 87%
1 11.8%
2 2.5%
3 <1%
$27,497 Vol.
$27,497 Vol.
0
87%
1
12%
2
2%
3
<1%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
0 87%
1 11.8%
2 2.5%
3 <1%
$27,497 Vol.
$27,497 Vol.
0
$9,606 Vol.
87%
1
$1,887 Vol.
12%
2
$1,544 Vol.
2%
3
$821 Vol.
<1%
4
$6,786 Vol.
<1%
>4
$6,852 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in the 2026 cycle have encountered minimal organized opposition, with most advancing unopposed or with negligible challengers in states such as New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico. Four Democratic retirements—Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and one additional seat—remove those officeholders from primary contests entirely, while the remaining incumbents benefit from established party infrastructure and low intra-party dissent. Recent primary results, including the Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, reinforce the pattern of orderly nomination processes. Traders assign an 87% probability to zero losses, reflecting the absence of viable primary threats or late-cycle disruptions that could alter outcomes before filing deadlines close.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,497Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in the 2026 cycle have encountered minimal organized opposition, with most advancing unopposed or with negligible challengers in states such as New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico. Four Democratic retirements—Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and one additional seat—remove those officeholders from primary contests entirely, while the remaining incumbents benefit from established party infrastructure and low intra-party dissent. Recent primary results, including the Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, reinforce the pattern of orderly nomination processes. Traders assign an 87% probability to zero losses, reflecting the absence of viable primary threats or late-cycle disruptions that could alter outcomes before filing deadlines close.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$27,497Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in the 2026 cycle have encountered minimal organized opposition, with most advancing unopposed or with negligible challengers in states such as New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico. Four Democratic retirements—Gary Peters in Michigan, Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and one additional seat—remove those officeholders from primary contests entirely, while the remaining incumbents benefit from established party infrastructure and low intra-party dissent. Recent primary results, including the Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed, reinforce the pattern of orderly nomination processes. Traders assign an 87% probability to zero losses, reflecting the absence of viable primary threats or late-cycle disruptions that could alter outcomes before filing deadlines close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
45%
I deputati repubblicani uscenti non vinceranno tra quattro e sei elezioni di nomina nel ciclo del 2026?
93%
Sì
Il Partito Repubblicano avrà meno di 22 governatorati dopo le elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
30%
Sì
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