The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through July 2026, amid subdued GDP growth now projected at just 0.7% for the year and July CPI inflation at 3.0% (elevated by energy prices from Middle East tensions), underpins the 80% market-implied probability of no 2026 rate hike. Traders price in persistent economic weakness and the central bank's willingness to look through transitory inflation spikes, consistent with forward guidance and economist consensus forecasting the rate remaining unchanged into year-end. Geopolitical risks and a weaker loonie add caution but have not shifted expectations toward tightening, with markets assigning low odds to any move above the current level before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 policy meeting and August inflation data, which could reinforce the current path if growth remains soft.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAumento dei tassi della Banca del Canada nel 2026?
Aumento dei tassi della Banca del Canada nel 2026?
Sì
20% probabilità
$19,061 Vol.
$19,061 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
20% probabilità
$19,061 Vol.
$19,061 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through July 2026, amid subdued GDP growth now projected at just 0.7% for the year and July CPI inflation at 3.0% (elevated by energy prices from Middle East tensions), underpins the 80% market-implied probability of no 2026 rate hike. Traders price in persistent economic weakness and the central bank's willingness to look through transitory inflation spikes, consistent with forward guidance and economist consensus forecasting the rate remaining unchanged into year-end. Geopolitical risks and a weaker loonie add caution but have not shifted expectations toward tightening, with markets assigning low odds to any move above the current level before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 policy meeting and August inflation data, which could reinforce the current path if growth remains soft.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$19,061Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through July 2026, amid subdued GDP growth now projected at just 0.7% for the year and July CPI inflation at 3.0% (elevated by energy prices from Middle East tensions), underpins the 80% market-implied probability of no 2026 rate hike. Traders price in persistent economic weakness and the central bank's willingness to look through transitory inflation spikes, consistent with forward guidance and economist consensus forecasting the rate remaining unchanged into year-end. Geopolitical risks and a weaker loonie add caution but have not shifted expectations toward tightening, with markets assigning low odds to any move above the current level before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 policy meeting and August inflation data, which could reinforce the current path if growth remains soft.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,061Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through July 2026, amid subdued GDP growth now projected at just 0.7% for the year and July CPI inflation at 3.0% (elevated by energy prices from Middle East tensions), underpins the 80% market-implied probability of no 2026 rate hike. Traders price in persistent economic weakness and the central bank's willingness to look through transitory inflation spikes, consistent with forward guidance and economist consensus forecasting the rate remaining unchanged into year-end. Geopolitical risks and a weaker loonie add caution but have not shifted expectations toward tightening, with markets assigning low odds to any move above the current level before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 policy meeting and August inflation data, which could reinforce the current path if growth remains soft.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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