The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its overnight rate target steady at 2.25 percent anchors the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment declined 18,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP expanded at a moderate 1.7 percent pace, underscoring domestic slack that keeps monetary policy on hold. Offsetting this, headline CPI climbed to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, though core measures remained near 2.2 percent and the central bank has signaled it will look through transitory spikes. The April CPI release on May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
10 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
10 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,584 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$4,363 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,472 Vol.
96%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its overnight rate target steady at 2.25 percent anchors the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment declined 18,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP expanded at a moderate 1.7 percent pace, underscoring domestic slack that keeps monetary policy on hold. Offsetting this, headline CPI climbed to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, though core measures remained near 2.2 percent and the central bank has signaled it will look through transitory spikes. The April CPI release on May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$26,429Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its overnight rate target steady at 2.25 percent anchors the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment declined 18,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP expanded at a moderate 1.7 percent pace, underscoring domestic slack that keeps monetary policy on hold. Offsetting this, headline CPI climbed to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, though core measures remained near 2.2 percent and the central bank has signaled it will look through transitory spikes. The April CPI release on May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,429Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its overnight rate target steady at 2.25 percent anchors the 96 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. April employment declined 18,000 while the unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP expanded at a moderate 1.7 percent pace, underscoring domestic slack that keeps monetary policy on hold. Offsetting this, headline CPI climbed to 2.4 percent year-over-year in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, though core measures remained near 2.2 percent and the central bank has signaled it will look through transitory spikes. The April CPI release on May 19 represents the key near-term catalyst that could either reinforce the hold or reopen slim odds of a modest cut if downside surprises emerge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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