Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$7,897,969 Vol.
$7,897,969 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$7,897,969 Vol.
$7,897,969 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$7,897,969Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,897,969Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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