Recent mutual accusations over a disputed sandbar in the South China Sea, including China's claim of Philippine personnel landings on Sandy Cay on May 3 and Manila's deployment of ships to counter a Chinese vessel, underscore persistent gray-zone tensions without kinetic military engagement. Chinese naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal during the Philippines-U.S. Balikatan exercises in late April heightened posturing, met by Beijing's carrier group presence, yet both sides have confined actions to coast guard blockades, maritime militia swarms, and verbal barbs. As ASEAN chair in 2026, Manila advances code of conduct negotiations with China, signaling diplomatic restraint amid U.S. alliance deterrence, justifying trader consensus at 80.5% against a clash before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$355,506 Vol.
$355,506 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$355,506 Vol.
$355,506 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mutual accusations over a disputed sandbar in the South China Sea, including China's claim of Philippine personnel landings on Sandy Cay on May 3 and Manila's deployment of ships to counter a Chinese vessel, underscore persistent gray-zone tensions without kinetic military engagement. Chinese naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal during the Philippines-U.S. Balikatan exercises in late April heightened posturing, met by Beijing's carrier group presence, yet both sides have confined actions to coast guard blockades, maritime militia swarms, and verbal barbs. As ASEAN chair in 2026, Manila advances code of conduct negotiations with China, signaling diplomatic restraint amid U.S. alliance deterrence, justifying trader consensus at 80.5% against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$355,506Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mutual accusations over a disputed sandbar in the South China Sea, including China's claim of Philippine personnel landings on Sandy Cay on May 3 and Manila's deployment of ships to counter a Chinese vessel, underscore persistent gray-zone tensions without kinetic military engagement. Chinese naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal during the Philippines-U.S. Balikatan exercises in late April heightened posturing, met by Beijing's carrier group presence, yet both sides have confined actions to coast guard blockades, maritime militia swarms, and verbal barbs. As ASEAN chair in 2026, Manila advances code of conduct negotiations with China, signaling diplomatic restraint amid U.S. alliance deterrence, justifying trader consensus at 80.5% against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$355,506Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mutual accusations over a disputed sandbar in the South China Sea, including China's claim of Philippine personnel landings on Sandy Cay on May 3 and Manila's deployment of ships to counter a Chinese vessel, underscore persistent gray-zone tensions without kinetic military engagement. Chinese naval and air patrols near Scarborough Shoal during the Philippines-U.S. Balikatan exercises in late April heightened posturing, met by Beijing's carrier group presence, yet both sides have confined actions to coast guard blockades, maritime militia swarms, and verbal barbs. As ASEAN chair in 2026, Manila advances code of conduct negotiations with China, signaling diplomatic restraint amid U.S. alliance deterrence, justifying trader consensus at 80.5% against a clash before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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