Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the extremely narrow remaining window and the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command-and-control shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for unification and are unlikely to attempt an invasion in the near term, consistent with continued reliance on gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols, periodic live-fire drills, and air incursions rather than overt preparations. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, including reservist call-ups and tests of weapons relocation and civil-defense measures, further underscore defensive readiness without corresponding escalation from Beijing. While a sudden cross-strait crisis, abrupt policy shift, or unforeseen leadership event could theoretically alter trajectories before the deadline, the structural barriers and intelligence baseline keep near-term invasion odds negligible in the current environment.