**Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks and bilateral mechanisms support the 75% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end.** Following the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, the two sides established trade and investment boards to manage non-sensitive commerce and discuss reciprocal tariff reductions on equivalent scales exceeding $30 billion per side. China committed to substantial agricultural purchases and rare earth supply assurances, while the U.S. maintained suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and extended certain Section 301 exclusions into late 2026. These steps created structured channels for further negotiations on duties amid broader tariff investigations and forced-labor probes launched in June 2026. Trader assessments reflect the ongoing diplomatic momentum and institutional setup, which raise the likelihood of a publicly announced mutual tariff pact materializing before December 31, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation progress and any escalation in enforcement actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$16,843 Vol.
$16,843 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$16,843 Vol.
$16,843 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks and bilateral mechanisms support the 75% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end.**
Following the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, the two sides established trade and investment boards to manage non-sensitive commerce and discuss reciprocal tariff reductions on equivalent scales exceeding $30 billion per side. China committed to substantial agricultural purchases and rare earth supply assurances, while the U.S. maintained suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and extended certain Section 301 exclusions into late 2026. These steps created structured channels for further negotiations on duties amid broader tariff investigations and forced-labor probes launched in June 2026.
Trader assessments reflect the ongoing diplomatic momentum and institutional setup, which raise the likelihood of a publicly announced mutual tariff pact materializing before December 31, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation progress and any escalation in enforcement actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$16,843Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks and bilateral mechanisms support the 75% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end.**
Following the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, the two sides established trade and investment boards to manage non-sensitive commerce and discuss reciprocal tariff reductions on equivalent scales exceeding $30 billion per side. China committed to substantial agricultural purchases and rare earth supply assurances, while the U.S. maintained suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and extended certain Section 301 exclusions into late 2026. These steps created structured channels for further negotiations on duties amid broader tariff investigations and forced-labor probes launched in June 2026.
Trader assessments reflect the ongoing diplomatic momentum and institutional setup, which raise the likelihood of a publicly announced mutual tariff pact materializing before December 31, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation progress and any escalation in enforcement actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$16,843Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks and bilateral mechanisms support the 75% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end.** Following the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, the two sides established trade and investment boards to manage non-sensitive commerce and discuss reciprocal tariff reductions on equivalent scales exceeding $30 billion per side. China committed to substantial agricultural purchases and rare earth supply assurances, while the U.S. maintained suspensions of heightened reciprocal tariffs and extended certain Section 301 exclusions into late 2026. These steps created structured channels for further negotiations on duties amid broader tariff investigations and forced-labor probes launched in June 2026. Trader assessments reflect the ongoing diplomatic momentum and institutional setup, which raise the likelihood of a publicly announced mutual tariff pact materializing before December 31, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation progress and any escalation in enforcement actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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