Sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi summit and follow-on channels, combined with the absence of visible PLA amphibious mobilization or logistics shifts required for major operations, underpins trader consensus that a direct military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Both sides continue gray-zone activities such as South China Sea patrols, Taiwan Strait incursions, and joint allied exercises without crossing into kinetic conflict, while mutual deterrence, nuclear postures, and economic interdependence raise escalation costs. Recent Pentagon assessments and expert surveys note rising longer-term risks over Taiwan yet downgrade near-term probabilities amid routine drills rather than invasion preparations. Late-breaking crises, miscalculations during exercises, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter trajectories within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Scontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi summit and follow-on channels, combined with the absence of visible PLA amphibious mobilization or logistics shifts required for major operations, underpins trader consensus that a direct military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Both sides continue gray-zone activities such as South China Sea patrols, Taiwan Strait incursions, and joint allied exercises without crossing into kinetic conflict, while mutual deterrence, nuclear postures, and economic interdependence raise escalation costs. Recent Pentagon assessments and expert surveys note rising longer-term risks over Taiwan yet downgrade near-term probabilities amid routine drills rather than invasion preparations. Late-breaking crises, miscalculations during exercises, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter trajectories within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi summit and follow-on channels, combined with the absence of visible PLA amphibious mobilization or logistics shifts required for major operations, underpins trader consensus that a direct military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Both sides continue gray-zone activities such as South China Sea patrols, Taiwan Strait incursions, and joint allied exercises without crossing into kinetic conflict, while mutual deterrence, nuclear postures, and economic interdependence raise escalation costs. Recent Pentagon assessments and expert surveys note rising longer-term risks over Taiwan yet downgrade near-term probabilities amid routine drills rather than invasion preparations. Late-breaking crises, miscalculations during exercises, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter trajectories within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sustained U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including the 2026 Trump-Xi summit and follow-on channels, combined with the absence of visible PLA amphibious mobilization or logistics shifts required for major operations, underpins trader consensus that a direct military clash remains unlikely before 2027. Both sides continue gray-zone activities such as South China Sea patrols, Taiwan Strait incursions, and joint allied exercises without crossing into kinetic conflict, while mutual deterrence, nuclear postures, and economic interdependence raise escalation costs. Recent Pentagon assessments and expert surveys note rising longer-term risks over Taiwan yet downgrade near-term probabilities amid routine drills rather than invasion preparations. Late-breaking crises, miscalculations during exercises, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter trajectories within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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