Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and subsequent trade agreements, has reinforced trader expectations of continued restraint through the brief window before 2027. Ongoing frictions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea involve Chinese coast guard activity and Philippine confrontations but have not produced direct U.S.-China military incidents or rapid escalation. U.S. policy emphasizes Indo-Pacific deterrence enhancements and munitions production alongside alliance coordination, while both sides prioritize managing competition to avoid immediate conflict. Short-term barriers to clash include scheduled leader engagements and the absence of acute triggers. Unforeseen naval accidents, rapid Taiwan Strait deterioration, or miscalculation during routine patrols remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Scontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$194,565 Vol.
$194,565 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and subsequent trade agreements, has reinforced trader expectations of continued restraint through the brief window before 2027. Ongoing frictions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea involve Chinese coast guard activity and Philippine confrontations but have not produced direct U.S.-China military incidents or rapid escalation. U.S. policy emphasizes Indo-Pacific deterrence enhancements and munitions production alongside alliance coordination, while both sides prioritize managing competition to avoid immediate conflict. Short-term barriers to clash include scheduled leader engagements and the absence of acute triggers. Unforeseen naval accidents, rapid Taiwan Strait deterioration, or miscalculation during routine patrols remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$194,565Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and subsequent trade agreements, has reinforced trader expectations of continued restraint through the brief window before 2027. Ongoing frictions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea involve Chinese coast guard activity and Philippine confrontations but have not produced direct U.S.-China military incidents or rapid escalation. U.S. policy emphasizes Indo-Pacific deterrence enhancements and munitions production alongside alliance coordination, while both sides prioritize managing competition to avoid immediate conflict. Short-term barriers to clash include scheduled leader engagements and the absence of acute triggers. Unforeseen naval accidents, rapid Taiwan Strait deterioration, or miscalculation during routine patrols remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,565Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic stabilization between Washington and Beijing, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit and subsequent trade agreements, has reinforced trader expectations of continued restraint through the brief window before 2027. Ongoing frictions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea involve Chinese coast guard activity and Philippine confrontations but have not produced direct U.S.-China military incidents or rapid escalation. U.S. policy emphasizes Indo-Pacific deterrence enhancements and munitions production alongside alliance coordination, while both sides prioritize managing competition to avoid immediate conflict. Short-term barriers to clash include scheduled leader engagements and the absence of acute triggers. Unforeseen naval accidents, rapid Taiwan Strait deterioration, or miscalculation during routine patrols remain the primary variables that could alter the current consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti