Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their October 2025 Busan meeting that produced a one-year trade truce and the May 2026 Beijing summit yielding additional economic agreements, has reinforced bilateral channels for managing flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Both governments continue to prioritize economic competition and regional stability over direct military engagement, with U.S. strategy emphasizing allied burden-sharing and deterrence rather than escalation. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for no clash before 2027, underscoring the shared interest in avoiding conflict amid ongoing negotiations and structural economic interdependence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Scontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Sì
$112,962 Vol.
$112,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$112,962 Vol.
$112,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their October 2025 Busan meeting that produced a one-year trade truce and the May 2026 Beijing summit yielding additional economic agreements, has reinforced bilateral channels for managing flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Both governments continue to prioritize economic competition and regional stability over direct military engagement, with U.S. strategy emphasizing allied burden-sharing and deterrence rather than escalation. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for no clash before 2027, underscoring the shared interest in avoiding conflict amid ongoing negotiations and structural economic interdependence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$112,962Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their October 2025 Busan meeting that produced a one-year trade truce and the May 2026 Beijing summit yielding additional economic agreements, has reinforced bilateral channels for managing flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Both governments continue to prioritize economic competition and regional stability over direct military engagement, with U.S. strategy emphasizing allied burden-sharing and deterrence rather than escalation. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for no clash before 2027, underscoring the shared interest in avoiding conflict amid ongoing negotiations and structural economic interdependence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$112,962Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level diplomacy between Presidents Trump and Xi, including their October 2025 Busan meeting that produced a one-year trade truce and the May 2026 Beijing summit yielding additional economic agreements, has reinforced bilateral channels for managing flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Both governments continue to prioritize economic competition and regional stability over direct military engagement, with U.S. strategy emphasizing allied burden-sharing and deterrence rather than escalation. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for no clash before 2027, underscoring the shared interest in avoiding conflict amid ongoing negotiations and structural economic interdependence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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