Recent high-level diplomacy, including the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit that extended the bilateral trade truce and endorsed continued strategic stability talks, anchors trader consensus against a direct U.S.-China military clash before 2027. Both governments have sustained open channels amid ongoing gray-zone pressure in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, with Beijing conducting large-scale drills and Washington approving arms packages while avoiding kinetic escalation. Economic interdependence, mutual deterrence calculations, and recent patterns of negotiated de-escalation after incidents further support the view that neither side seeks open conflict in the near term. Low-probability triggers that could still shift odds include a major miscalculation during live-fire exercises, an abrupt change in Taiwan policy, or rapid deterioration of the January 2027 truce deadline.