Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms lead the fragmented 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market at 11.8% implied probability, reflecting traders’ focus on their grassroots aid networks sustaining communities amid the country’s devastating civil war and famine. Recent wins like the Rafto Prize and Right Livelihood Award, plus inclusion on the Peace Research Institute Oslo shortlist alongside Save the Children and the International Court of Justice, have boosted momentum for humanitarian and institutional contenders. Political figures such as Mark Carney saw brief surges from diplomatic positioning but faded quickly, while ongoing conflicts sideline names like Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. With the October 9 announcement days away and no overwhelming favorite, the field remains wide open to last-minute shifts in committee priorities.