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Politica·Premi

Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026

icon for Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026
Politica·Premi

Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Donald Trump 7%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.9%

Polymarket

$16,621,145 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Donald Trump 7%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.8%

UNRWA 4.9%

Polymarket

$16,621,145 Vol.

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$154,927 Vol.

8%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$2,679,888 Vol.

7%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$465,537 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,401 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$609,496 Vol.

4%

icon for Papa Leone XIV

Papa Leone XIV

$697,813 Vol.

3%

icon for Corte internazionale di giustizia

Corte internazionale di giustizia

$758,914 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$538,957 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,028,613 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$885,684 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,182,005 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$694,787 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$916,597 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$404,413 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$440,456 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$800,519 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$485,752 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$724,382 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$713,996 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$493,007 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market shows a highly fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim 7.5% implied probability edge over Donald Trump (6.5%) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (5.9%), reflecting deep uncertainty in the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee deliberations following the April 30 disclosure of 287 nominees. Navalnaya's recent May 5 speech at the Kristiansand European Conference and announcement of the Alexei Navalny Prize have sustained her momentum as heir to Russia's opposition legacy, while Trump's likely inclusion among nominees and Zelenskyy's formal nomination alongside Ukraine's people bolster their cases amid ongoing conflicts. Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (4.0%) gains from prior Gaza mediation, and new Pope Leo XIV (3.4%) from Vatican peace outreach since 2025. With no dominant frontrunner five months from the October 10 announcement, swing factors include potential leaks or geopolitical breakthroughs in Ukraine, Russia, or the Middle East.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$16,621,145
Data di fine
10 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket's Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market shows a highly fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim 7.5% implied probability edge over Donald Trump (6.5%) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (5.9%), reflecting deep uncertainty in the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee deliberations following the April 30 disclosure of 287 nominees. Navalnaya's recent May 5 speech at the Kristiansand European Conference and announcement of the Alexei Navalny Prize have sustained her momentum as heir to Russia's opposition legacy, while Trump's likely inclusion among nominees and Zelenskyy's formal nomination alongside Ukraine's people bolster their cases amid ongoing conflicts. Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (4.0%) gains from prior Gaza mediation, and new Pope Leo XIV (3.4%) from Vatican peace outreach since 2025. With no dominant frontrunner five months from the October 10 announcement, swing factors include potential leaks or geopolitical breakthroughs in Ukraine, Russia, or the Middle East.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$16,621,145
Data di fine
10 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 20 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Yulia Navalnaya" a 8%, seguito da "Donald Trump" a 7%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 8¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 8% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" ha generato $16.6 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Oct 16, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026", esplora i 20 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" è "Yulia Navalnaya" a solo 8%, con "Donald Trump" vicino a 7%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore del Premio Nobel per la Pace 2026" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.