**Traders assign a 94% probability to “No” because sustained bilateral diplomacy has not produced any trilateral gathering involving President Trump, President Putin, and President Zelenskyy.** Trump has held multiple meetings with Zelenskyy in 2026, including at the White House in July and on the margins of the NATO summit in Ankara, while earlier hosting or speaking with Putin separately, most notably at a 2025 Alaska summit. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks and direct Russia-Ukraine contacts have focused on cease-fire proposals, territorial questions, and security guarantees, yet these efforts have remained bilateral or mediated rather than producing a single public event with all three leaders. Core sticking points on territory and implementation timelines, combined with the absence of any announced three-way summit or photo opportunity through mid-2026, have reinforced market expectations that such a visible joint appearance is unlikely before the end of 2026.