Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks earlier in 2026, including sessions in Geneva, highlighted the core impasse: Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and recognition of annexed territories as a precondition for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders reject unilateral concessions without credible security guarantees. Battlefield developments show continued Russian incremental gains alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, with polls indicating limited but growing war fatigue among the public. No breakthrough has occurred since spring proposals, and core positions on sovereignty, NATO alignment, and force limits remain unchanged. Traders price low probability of a territorial deal by year-end due to these entrenched barriers and absence of imminent diplomatic catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Ucraina accetterà di cedere il territorio alla Russia entro...?
$736,660 Vol.

31 dicembre 2026
8%

31 agosto 2026
1%
$736,660 Vol.

31 dicembre 2026
8%

31 agosto 2026
1%
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks earlier in 2026, including sessions in Geneva, highlighted the core impasse: Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and recognition of annexed territories as a precondition for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders reject unilateral concessions without credible security guarantees. Battlefield developments show continued Russian incremental gains alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, with polls indicating limited but growing war fatigue among the public. No breakthrough has occurred since spring proposals, and core positions on sovereignty, NATO alignment, and force limits remain unchanged. Traders price low probability of a territorial deal by year-end due to these entrenched barriers and absence of imminent diplomatic catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato


Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti