Ukraine's firm rejection of unilateral territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind the 95.3% implied probability against agreement before 2027. Russian demands for full control of the remaining Ukrainian-held portions, including the Fortress Belt around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, have stayed consistent across 2026 talks, while Kyiv insists any ceasefire reference the current line of contact and security guarantees. Incremental Russian advances and ongoing battlefield air interdiction campaigns targeting Ukrainian logistics have not altered this position, as Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian assets and maintain defensive resolve. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched stances and lack of diplomatic progress. Potential shifts could arise from a decisive Russian capture of key eastern cities, sharp reductions in Western military support, or renewed high-level mediation producing revised territorial terms within the timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Ucraina accetterà di rinunciare al resto del Donbass prima del 2027?
L'Ucraina accetterà di rinunciare al resto del Donbass prima del 2027?
Sì
5% probabilità
$148,337 Vol.
$148,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$148,337 Vol.
$148,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's firm rejection of unilateral territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind the 95.3% implied probability against agreement before 2027. Russian demands for full control of the remaining Ukrainian-held portions, including the Fortress Belt around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, have stayed consistent across 2026 talks, while Kyiv insists any ceasefire reference the current line of contact and security guarantees. Incremental Russian advances and ongoing battlefield air interdiction campaigns targeting Ukrainian logistics have not altered this position, as Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian assets and maintain defensive resolve. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched stances and lack of diplomatic progress. Potential shifts could arise from a decisive Russian capture of key eastern cities, sharp reductions in Western military support, or renewed high-level mediation producing revised territorial terms within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$148,337Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine's firm rejection of unilateral territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind the 95.3% implied probability against agreement before 2027. Russian demands for full control of the remaining Ukrainian-held portions, including the Fortress Belt around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, have stayed consistent across 2026 talks, while Kyiv insists any ceasefire reference the current line of contact and security guarantees. Incremental Russian advances and ongoing battlefield air interdiction campaigns targeting Ukrainian logistics have not altered this position, as Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian assets and maintain defensive resolve. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched stances and lack of diplomatic progress. Potential shifts could arise from a decisive Russian capture of key eastern cities, sharp reductions in Western military support, or renewed high-level mediation producing revised territorial terms within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$148,337Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's firm rejection of unilateral territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind the 95.3% implied probability against agreement before 2027. Russian demands for full control of the remaining Ukrainian-held portions, including the Fortress Belt around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, have stayed consistent across 2026 talks, while Kyiv insists any ceasefire reference the current line of contact and security guarantees. Incremental Russian advances and ongoing battlefield air interdiction campaigns targeting Ukrainian logistics have not altered this position, as Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian assets and maintain defensive resolve. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched stances and lack of diplomatic progress. Potential shifts could arise from a decisive Russian capture of key eastern cities, sharp reductions in Western military support, or renewed high-level mediation producing revised territorial terms within the timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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