Ukraine’s firm commitment to territorial integrity continues to anchor trader expectations that Kyiv will not cede the remaining Ukrainian-held portions of Donbas before 2027. Russia has repeatedly conditioned any ceasefire on full withdrawal from Donetsk, a demand reinforced during early September 2026 US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet Ukrainian officials have rejected unilateral concessions and insisted such issues require direct leader-level resolution. Recent diplomatic signals point to possible trilateral talks in October, but core disagreements over territory and security guarantees persist amid ongoing frontline fighting where neither side has achieved decisive shifts. While Russia expresses confidence in capturing the region by year-end, Ukraine’s defensive posture and external support have sustained resistance to pre-2027 territorial deals. Shifts could still emerge from major battlefield reversals, new security arrangements, or unexpected leadership decisions within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Ucraina accetterà di rinunciare al resto del Donbass prima del 2027?
L'Ucraina accetterà di rinunciare al resto del Donbass prima del 2027?
Sì
4% probabilità
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm commitment to territorial integrity continues to anchor trader expectations that Kyiv will not cede the remaining Ukrainian-held portions of Donbas before 2027. Russia has repeatedly conditioned any ceasefire on full withdrawal from Donetsk, a demand reinforced during early September 2026 US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet Ukrainian officials have rejected unilateral concessions and insisted such issues require direct leader-level resolution. Recent diplomatic signals point to possible trilateral talks in October, but core disagreements over territory and security guarantees persist amid ongoing frontline fighting where neither side has achieved decisive shifts. While Russia expresses confidence in capturing the region by year-end, Ukraine’s defensive posture and external support have sustained resistance to pre-2027 territorial deals. Shifts could still emerge from major battlefield reversals, new security arrangements, or unexpected leadership decisions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$150,433Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm commitment to territorial integrity continues to anchor trader expectations that Kyiv will not cede the remaining Ukrainian-held portions of Donbas before 2027. Russia has repeatedly conditioned any ceasefire on full withdrawal from Donetsk, a demand reinforced during early September 2026 US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet Ukrainian officials have rejected unilateral concessions and insisted such issues require direct leader-level resolution. Recent diplomatic signals point to possible trilateral talks in October, but core disagreements over territory and security guarantees persist amid ongoing frontline fighting where neither side has achieved decisive shifts. While Russia expresses confidence in capturing the region by year-end, Ukraine’s defensive posture and external support have sustained resistance to pre-2027 territorial deals. Shifts could still emerge from major battlefield reversals, new security arrangements, or unexpected leadership decisions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$150,433Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm commitment to territorial integrity continues to anchor trader expectations that Kyiv will not cede the remaining Ukrainian-held portions of Donbas before 2027. Russia has repeatedly conditioned any ceasefire on full withdrawal from Donetsk, a demand reinforced during early September 2026 US envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet Ukrainian officials have rejected unilateral concessions and insisted such issues require direct leader-level resolution. Recent diplomatic signals point to possible trilateral talks in October, but core disagreements over territory and security guarantees persist amid ongoing frontline fighting where neither side has achieved decisive shifts. While Russia expresses confidence in capturing the region by year-end, Ukraine’s defensive posture and external support have sustained resistance to pre-2027 territorial deals. Shifts could still emerge from major battlefield reversals, new security arrangements, or unexpected leadership decisions within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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