Canada's federal immigration policy continues to drive population trends through the 2026-2028 levels plan, which caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents to reach a target below 5 percent of the total population. Statistics Canada data already confirm the first annual national decline on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people or 0.2 percent, primarily from reduced temporary work and study permits. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or near-zero growth for 2026 overall, with further non-permanent resident declines offset by ongoing permanent inflows and low natural increase. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because full-year 2026 figures could produce a drop smaller than 2025 if outflows moderate or data revisions occur from permit extensions, while faster exits or weaker economic conditions could widen the contraction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
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30 apr 2027
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30 apr 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal immigration policy continues to drive population trends through the 2026-2028 levels plan, which caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents to reach a target below 5 percent of the total population. Statistics Canada data already confirm the first annual national decline on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people or 0.2 percent, primarily from reduced temporary work and study permits. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or near-zero growth for 2026 overall, with further non-permanent resident declines offset by ongoing permanent inflows and low natural increase. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because full-year 2026 figures could produce a drop smaller than 2025 if outflows moderate or data revisions occur from permit extensions, while faster exits or weaker economic conditions could widen the contraction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,512Data di fine
30 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal immigration policy continues to drive population trends through the 2026-2028 levels plan, which caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents to reach a target below 5 percent of the total population. Statistics Canada data already confirm the first annual national decline on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people or 0.2 percent, primarily from reduced temporary work and study permits. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or near-zero growth for 2026 overall, with further non-permanent resident declines offset by ongoing permanent inflows and low natural increase. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because full-year 2026 figures could produce a drop smaller than 2025 if outflows moderate or data revisions occur from permit extensions, while faster exits or weaker economic conditions could widen the contraction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,512Data di fine
30 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal immigration policy continues to drive population trends through the 2026-2028 levels plan, which caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while accelerating net outflows of non-permanent residents to reach a target below 5 percent of the total population. Statistics Canada data already confirm the first annual national decline on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people or 0.2 percent, primarily from reduced temporary work and study permits. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate flat or near-zero growth for 2026 overall, with further non-permanent resident declines offset by ongoing permanent inflows and low natural increase. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced because full-year 2026 figures could produce a drop smaller than 2025 if outflows moderate or data revisions occur from permit extensions, while faster exits or weaker economic conditions could widen the contraction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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