**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% at its August 6 meeting, coupled with explicit guidance for an extended pause, underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 decision.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to approximately 3.1–3.26% while core inflation remains near 3.95%, with services prices proving sticky; the central bank has accordingly delayed its 3% target convergence projection to Q4 2027 and kept inflation risks skewed to the upside amid USMCA review uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso pressures. Analyst surveys and forward guidance reinforce expectations that the policy rate will stay at 6.50% through year-end, with only modest odds priced for a 25 bp cut reflecting the high bar for easing. The next key catalysts are the September 24 meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which will test whether disinflation progress sustains the current restrictive stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessuna variazione 87%
Riduzione di 25 pb 10.0%
Aumento di 25 punti base 3.3%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.7%
$11,323 Vol.
$11,323 Vol.
5 nov 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
2%
Riduzione di 25 pb
10%
Nessuna variazione
87%
Aumento di 25 punti base
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessuna variazione 87%
Riduzione di 25 pb 10.0%
Aumento di 25 punti base 3.3%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.7%
$11,323 Vol.
$11,323 Vol.
5 nov 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$475 Vol.
2%
Riduzione di 25 pb
$437 Vol.
10%
Nessuna variazione
$9,669 Vol.
87%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$465 Vol.
3%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$276 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% at its August 6 meeting, coupled with explicit guidance for an extended pause, underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 decision.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to approximately 3.1–3.26% while core inflation remains near 3.95%, with services prices proving sticky; the central bank has accordingly delayed its 3% target convergence projection to Q4 2027 and kept inflation risks skewed to the upside amid USMCA review uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso pressures. Analyst surveys and forward guidance reinforce expectations that the policy rate will stay at 6.50% through year-end, with only modest odds priced for a 25 bp cut reflecting the high bar for easing. The next key catalysts are the September 24 meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which will test whether disinflation progress sustains the current restrictive stance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$11,323Data di fine
5 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% at its August 6 meeting, coupled with explicit guidance for an extended pause, underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 decision.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to approximately 3.1–3.26% while core inflation remains near 3.95%, with services prices proving sticky; the central bank has accordingly delayed its 3% target convergence projection to Q4 2027 and kept inflation risks skewed to the upside amid USMCA review uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso pressures. Analyst surveys and forward guidance reinforce expectations that the policy rate will stay at 6.50% through year-end, with only modest odds priced for a 25 bp cut reflecting the high bar for easing. The next key catalysts are the September 24 meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which will test whether disinflation progress sustains the current restrictive stance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$11,323Data di fine
5 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% at its August 6 meeting, coupled with explicit guidance for an extended pause, underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 decision.** Recent inflation data show headline CPI easing to approximately 3.1–3.26% while core inflation remains near 3.95%, with services prices proving sticky; the central bank has accordingly delayed its 3% target convergence projection to Q4 2027 and kept inflation risks skewed to the upside amid USMCA review uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso pressures. Analyst surveys and forward guidance reinforce expectations that the policy rate will stay at 6.50% through year-end, with only modest odds priced for a 25 bp cut reflecting the high bar for easing. The next key catalysts are the September 24 meeting and upcoming CPI releases, which will test whether disinflation progress sustains the current restrictive stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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