Recent July CPI data, showing a modest 0.1% MoM headline rebound from June’s -0.4% decline alongside 0.2% core, has anchored trader expectations for August around a moderate rebound amid easing energy prices and steady shelter costs. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place August headline CPI at 0.35% MoM, aligning with the near-even 35% and 34% implied probabilities for 0.3% versus 0.4% outcomes. Competitive dynamics hinge on volatile components such as gasoline and food, plus any revisions to July figures or incoming retail sales data, while broader labor market softening could tilt sentiment toward the lower print. The August CPI release, expected mid-September, remains the key catalyst before the next FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0,4% 37%
0,3% 35%
≥0,5% 22%
0,2% 9%
≤-0,3%
3%
-0,2%
5%
-0,1%
1%
0,0%
2%
0,1%
4%
0,2%
9%
0,3%
35%
0,4%
37%
≥0,5%
22%
0,4% 37%
0,3% 35%
≥0,5% 22%
0,2% 9%
≤-0,3%
3%
-0,2%
5%
-0,1%
1%
0,0%
2%
0,1%
4%
0,2%
9%
0,3%
35%
0,4%
37%
≥0,5%
22%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data, showing a modest 0.1% MoM headline rebound from June’s -0.4% decline alongside 0.2% core, has anchored trader expectations for August around a moderate rebound amid easing energy prices and steady shelter costs. Cleveland Fed nowcasts place August headline CPI at 0.35% MoM, aligning with the near-even 35% and 34% implied probabilities for 0.3% versus 0.4% outcomes. Competitive dynamics hinge on volatile components such as gasoline and food, plus any revisions to July figures or incoming retail sales data, while broader labor market softening could tilt sentiment toward the lower print. The August CPI release, expected mid-September, remains the key catalyst before the next FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato

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