Recent July core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 1.8% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the core-core measure reached 1.9%, still tempered by government energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s July outlook revised its fiscal 2026 core CPI median forecast lower to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing those temporary supports, yet analysts highlight mounting upside risks from yen weakness, import-cost pass-through, and higher crude prices linked to Middle East tensions. These offsetting forces—near-term moderation versus expected re-acceleration into the 2–3% range by late 2026—keep trader-implied odds on ≤1.9% and 2.0–2.4% tightly matched near 49% each. Key swing factors include the pace of subsidy phase-outs and wage-price dynamics ahead of the annual report resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato≤1,9% 49.4%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 2.4%
2,5-2,9% 1.4%
$38,446 Vol.
$38,446 Vol.
22 gen 2027
≤1,9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
49%
2,5-2,9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
2%
3,5-3,9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1,9% 49.4%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 2.4%
2,5-2,9% 1.4%
$38,446 Vol.
$38,446 Vol.
22 gen 2027
≤1,9%
$18,293 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,751 Vol.
49%
2,5-2,9%
$5,372 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,488 Vol.
2%
3,5-3,9%
$1,165 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 1.8% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the core-core measure reached 1.9%, still tempered by government energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s July outlook revised its fiscal 2026 core CPI median forecast lower to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing those temporary supports, yet analysts highlight mounting upside risks from yen weakness, import-cost pass-through, and higher crude prices linked to Middle East tensions. These offsetting forces—near-term moderation versus expected re-acceleration into the 2–3% range by late 2026—keep trader-implied odds on ≤1.9% and 2.0–2.4% tightly matched near 49% each. Key swing factors include the pace of subsidy phase-outs and wage-price dynamics ahead of the annual report resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$38,446Data di fine
22 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 1.8% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the core-core measure reached 1.9%, still tempered by government energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s July outlook revised its fiscal 2026 core CPI median forecast lower to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing those temporary supports, yet analysts highlight mounting upside risks from yen weakness, import-cost pass-through, and higher crude prices linked to Middle East tensions. These offsetting forces—near-term moderation versus expected re-acceleration into the 2–3% range by late 2026—keep trader-implied odds on ≤1.9% and 2.0–2.4% tightly matched near 49% each. Key swing factors include the pace of subsidy phase-outs and wage-price dynamics ahead of the annual report resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$38,446Data di fine
22 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core CPI (ex-fresh food) rose 1.8% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in June, while the core-core measure reached 1.9%, still tempered by government energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s July outlook revised its fiscal 2026 core CPI median forecast lower to 2.5% from 2.8%, citing those temporary supports, yet analysts highlight mounting upside risks from yen weakness, import-cost pass-through, and higher crude prices linked to Middle East tensions. These offsetting forces—near-term moderation versus expected re-acceleration into the 2–3% range by late 2026—keep trader-implied odds on ≤1.9% and 2.0–2.4% tightly matched near 49% each. Key swing factors include the pace of subsidy phase-outs and wage-price dynamics ahead of the annual report resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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