Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at or below 1.6% YoY in national data through mid-2026, with Tokyo's leading July reading at 1.9%, well below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fuel subsidies and base effects that have capped energy-driven pressures. Trader consensus pricing ≤1.9% or 2.0-2.4% as the dominant outcomes reflects these subdued prints, recent BoJ forecast cuts for fiscal 2026 core inflation to the 2.3-2.7% range, and lower oil prices offsetting yen weakness. The central bank held its policy rate at 1% in late July after June's hike, underscoring caution around underlying services inflation that remains sticky near 2% on a core-core basis. Upcoming national releases and any shift in energy costs or wage pass-through could influence near-term repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato≤1,9% 50.2%
2.0-2.4% 35%
3.0-3.4% 8.0%
2,5-2,9% 1.3%
$35,793 Vol.
$35,793 Vol.
22 gen 2027
≤1,9%
50%
2.0-2.4%
35%
2,5-2,9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
8%
3,5-3,9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
≤1,9% 50.2%
2.0-2.4% 35%
3.0-3.4% 8.0%
2,5-2,9% 1.3%
$35,793 Vol.
$35,793 Vol.
22 gen 2027
≤1,9%
$16,943 Vol.
50%
2.0-2.4%
$10,505 Vol.
35%
2,5-2,9%
$5,149 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,056 Vol.
8%
3,5-3,9%
$800 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,339 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at or below 1.6% YoY in national data through mid-2026, with Tokyo's leading July reading at 1.9%, well below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fuel subsidies and base effects that have capped energy-driven pressures. Trader consensus pricing ≤1.9% or 2.0-2.4% as the dominant outcomes reflects these subdued prints, recent BoJ forecast cuts for fiscal 2026 core inflation to the 2.3-2.7% range, and lower oil prices offsetting yen weakness. The central bank held its policy rate at 1% in late July after June's hike, underscoring caution around underlying services inflation that remains sticky near 2% on a core-core basis. Upcoming national releases and any shift in energy costs or wage pass-through could influence near-term repricing.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$35,793Data di fine
22 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at or below 1.6% YoY in national data through mid-2026, with Tokyo's leading July reading at 1.9%, well below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fuel subsidies and base effects that have capped energy-driven pressures. Trader consensus pricing ≤1.9% or 2.0-2.4% as the dominant outcomes reflects these subdued prints, recent BoJ forecast cuts for fiscal 2026 core inflation to the 2.3-2.7% range, and lower oil prices offsetting yen weakness. The central bank held its policy rate at 1% in late July after June's hike, underscoring caution around underlying services inflation that remains sticky near 2% on a core-core basis. Upcoming national releases and any shift in energy costs or wage pass-through could influence near-term repricing.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$35,793Data di fine
22 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at or below 1.6% YoY in national data through mid-2026, with Tokyo's leading July reading at 1.9%, well below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid fuel subsidies and base effects that have capped energy-driven pressures. Trader consensus pricing ≤1.9% or 2.0-2.4% as the dominant outcomes reflects these subdued prints, recent BoJ forecast cuts for fiscal 2026 core inflation to the 2.3-2.7% range, and lower oil prices offsetting yen weakness. The central bank held its policy rate at 1% in late July after June's hike, underscoring caution around underlying services inflation that remains sticky near 2% on a core-core basis. Upcoming national releases and any shift in energy costs or wage pass-through could influence near-term repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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