Trader consensus prices "No" at 94% implied probability for a North Korean invasion of South Korea before 2027, reflecting entrenched mutual deterrence under the 1953 armistice, South Korea's superior conventional forces backed by the US alliance's nuclear umbrella, and Pyongyang's economic constraints limiting sustained warfare. Recent North Korean constitutional amendments, formalized in early May 2026, explicitly signal a policy of assurance against first strikes on Seoul, easing tensions amid routine ballistic missile tests in April that experts view as posturing tied to global distractions like the Iran conflict. Pyongyang's deepening military pact with Russia, including a five-year cooperation plan announced late April, diverts resources northward rather than southward, with no verified mobilization or escalation signals; late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or leadership shifts could still alter dynamics.