Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike, and he has issued statements and approved key IRGC and security appointments while remaining unseen in public. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, have repeatedly confirmed he is alive, recovering from injuries sustained in the February attack, and exercising final authority from secure locations inside the country, citing ongoing security threats from the conflict. No credible reporting has documented any departure from Iran, and analysts note that dynastic succession and regime continuity incentives make exit unlikely absent a major shift in the war or internal power dynamics. Recent media profiles from family members and proof-of-life claims have aimed to address speculation over his health and whereabouts without altering the pattern of domestic seclusion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$117,848 Vol.
31 ottobre
3%
31 dicembre
8%
$117,848 Vol.
31 ottobre
3%
31 dicembre
8%
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike, and he has issued statements and approved key IRGC and security appointments while remaining unseen in public. Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, have repeatedly confirmed he is alive, recovering from injuries sustained in the February attack, and exercising final authority from secure locations inside the country, citing ongoing security threats from the conflict. No credible reporting has documented any departure from Iran, and analysts note that dynastic succession and regime continuity incentives make exit unlikely absent a major shift in the war or internal power dynamics. Recent media profiles from family members and proof-of-life claims have aimed to address speculation over his health and whereabouts without altering the pattern of domestic seclusion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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