Escalating Iranian IRGC attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple projectile strikes and disputed mine incidents in mid-October 2026, represent the dominant driver of trader positioning. Record weekly attack volumes—twelve vessels between October 5–11 alone, with six on a single day—have coincided with oil transit volumes falling to roughly 12.6 million barrels per day on October 13 versus a 17 million baseline, pushing Brent crude near $104 amid elevated war-risk premiums. US Central Command reports and Kpler data show continued targeting of tankers and container ships, while Iranian claims of control and demands for route authorization sustain uncertainty. Market-implied odds reflect this sustained tempo, with high probabilities attached to active dates ahead of potential catalysts such as US midterm outcomes or further naval responses.