Persistent security risks from the Iran conflict, including unresolved mine threats, competing transit regimes, and repeated vessel attacks through early October, underpin the 82.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic in 2026. Trader consensus reflects the waterway's severely restricted status, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging just 3-7% of pre-crisis levels amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and selective U.S.-facilitated routes. Recent late-September strikes on tankers and stalled de-mining efforts have reinforced this positioning, while partial oil rerouting via pipelines and alternative ports has limited immediate supply shocks but failed to restore open navigation. Key catalysts ahead include potential diplomatic shifts post-U.S. midterms.