The market assigns an 82.5% implied probability to no change at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November 3 meeting following the September 29 hike that lifted the cash rate target to 4.60%. Persistent underlying inflation at 3.6% year-over-year in the August CPI, alongside a headline print of 4.0% driven by higher energy prices from Middle East developments, prompted the unanimous tightening and hawkish guidance that further increases remain possible if needed. However, the cumulative impact of prior hikes, softening housing conditions, and stable trimmed-mean readings have led traders to price limited scope for an immediate follow-up move, with only a 17.4% chance assigned to another 25 basis point rise. The next inflation release and Board assessment of domestic capacity pressures will be key near-term catalysts.