The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElezioni parlamentari nel Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore: aumento o diminuzione dell'affluenza?
Elezioni parlamentari nel Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore: aumento o diminuzione dell'affluenza?
In aumento
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
In aumento
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Volume
$0Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely balanced 51% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's September 20, 2026, Landtag election stems from elevated participation trends in recent German state votes, including a 5.8-point rise in Baden-Württemberg, alongside AfD polling strength near 36% that could drive protest and counter-mobilization among SPD supporters. The 2021 baseline of 70.8% sets a high bar, yet factors such as eligibility for voters aged 16 and older plus intense competition between the incumbent SPD and surging AfD may sustain or exceed that level through greater engagement. Developments that could shift odds include sustained AfD momentum from prior contests boosting overall participation, versus campaign fatigue or subdued national attention potentially suppressing it.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
La CDU vincerà il secondo maggior numero di seggi nelle elezioni parlamentari del Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore del 2026?
33%
Sì
Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
34%
La CDU otterrà il terzo maggior numero di seggi nelle elezioni parlamentari del Meclemburgo-Pomerania Anteriore del 2026?
34%
Sì
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