**Traders assign a 76% probability that no additional country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled momentum on major potential signatories despite ongoing U.S. diplomatic pressure.** Saudi Arabia remains the clearest near-term candidate but continues to condition normalization on concrete steps toward a Palestinian state, a position reaffirmed in 2026 amid U.S. efforts to link a civilian nuclear agreement to accession. Recent statements from Riyadh have shown no shift, even as the Trump administration has publicly urged progress and floated linkages to regional security arrangements following the 2025–2026 Iran-related developments. Other speculated candidates, including Syria and Lebanon, face persistent barriers from active military operations, Hezbollah disarmament challenges, and domestic political transitions that have not yet produced the required conditions for normalization. While Kazakhstan acceded in late 2025 and Somaliland pledged to join after Israel’s December 2025 recognition, these moves have not generated follow-on momentum for additional Arab or Muslim-majority states within the remaining timeframe. U.S. officials continue to highlight expansion as a priority, yet the combination of unresolved Palestinian issues, regional security dynamics, and the absence of imminent bilateral breakthroughs supports the current market pricing that views a new accession before the end of 2026 as unlikely.