Israel maintains control over roughly 64% of Gaza following the October 2025 ceasefire, which included hostage releases, partial IDF redeployment, and phased withdrawal commitments under a U.S.-backed framework. A July 2026 Board of Peace agreement outlined Hamas disarmament in exchange for further Israeli withdrawal and an interim technocratic government, yet Israeli officials have rejected key elements, insisting on verified full disarmament before additional pullbacks. Intermittent Israeli strikes targeting militants have continued amid accusations of violations from both sides. These dynamics, combined with Netanyahu’s public stance and Hamas’s reported acceptance of disarmament terms, shape trader assessments of escalation risks. Upcoming implementation deadlines and any renewed clashes could influence probabilities around renewed large-scale ground operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$750,257 Vol.
31 ott 2025
31 dicembre
15%
$750,257 Vol.
31 dicembre
$100,626 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains control over roughly 64% of Gaza following the October 2025 ceasefire, which included hostage releases, partial IDF redeployment, and phased withdrawal commitments under a U.S.-backed framework. A July 2026 Board of Peace agreement outlined Hamas disarmament in exchange for further Israeli withdrawal and an interim technocratic government, yet Israeli officials have rejected key elements, insisting on verified full disarmament before additional pullbacks. Intermittent Israeli strikes targeting militants have continued amid accusations of violations from both sides. These dynamics, combined with Netanyahu’s public stance and Hamas’s reported acceptance of disarmament terms, shape trader assessments of escalation risks. Upcoming implementation deadlines and any renewed clashes could influence probabilities around renewed large-scale ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$750,257Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains control over roughly 64% of Gaza following the October 2025 ceasefire, which included hostage releases, partial IDF redeployment, and phased withdrawal commitments under a U.S.-backed framework. A July 2026 Board of Peace agreement outlined Hamas disarmament in exchange for further Israeli withdrawal and an interim technocratic government, yet Israeli officials have rejected key elements, insisting on verified full disarmament before additional pullbacks. Intermittent Israeli strikes targeting militants have continued amid accusations of violations from both sides. These dynamics, combined with Netanyahu’s public stance and Hamas’s reported acceptance of disarmament terms, shape trader assessments of escalation risks. Upcoming implementation deadlines and any renewed clashes could influence probabilities around renewed large-scale ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$750,257Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains control over roughly 64% of Gaza following the October 2025 ceasefire, which included hostage releases, partial IDF redeployment, and phased withdrawal commitments under a U.S.-backed framework. A July 2026 Board of Peace agreement outlined Hamas disarmament in exchange for further Israeli withdrawal and an interim technocratic government, yet Israeli officials have rejected key elements, insisting on verified full disarmament before additional pullbacks. Intermittent Israeli strikes targeting militants have continued amid accusations of violations from both sides. These dynamics, combined with Netanyahu’s public stance and Hamas’s reported acceptance of disarmament terms, shape trader assessments of escalation risks. Upcoming implementation deadlines and any renewed clashes could influence probabilities around renewed large-scale ground operations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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