Despite ongoing rhetorical escalation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including April 2026 indictments against Israeli officials over Gaza flotilla incidents and Turkish warnings of intervention similar to past operations in Libya and Syria, traders assign an 80.5% probability to no direct military clash before 2027. Both governments have maintained a deconfliction hotline established after Israeli strikes near Turkish positions in Syria, while Israel remains focused on operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Turkey’s recent unveiling of long-range missiles and drones signals capability buildup rather than immediate deployment, with mutual posturing largely directed at domestic audiences amid severed formal ties but persistent indirect trade channels. These factors, alongside NATO coordination on Turkish bases, underpin the current consensus that structural restraints and competing priorities will continue to prevent armed confrontation through the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare Israele-Turchia prima del 2027?
Scontro militare Israele-Turchia prima del 2027?
Sì
$198,710 Vol.
$198,710 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$198,710 Vol.
$198,710 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing rhetorical escalation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including April 2026 indictments against Israeli officials over Gaza flotilla incidents and Turkish warnings of intervention similar to past operations in Libya and Syria, traders assign an 80.5% probability to no direct military clash before 2027. Both governments have maintained a deconfliction hotline established after Israeli strikes near Turkish positions in Syria, while Israel remains focused on operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Turkey’s recent unveiling of long-range missiles and drones signals capability buildup rather than immediate deployment, with mutual posturing largely directed at domestic audiences amid severed formal ties but persistent indirect trade channels. These factors, alongside NATO coordination on Turkish bases, underpin the current consensus that structural restraints and competing priorities will continue to prevent armed confrontation through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$198,710Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing rhetorical escalation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including April 2026 indictments against Israeli officials over Gaza flotilla incidents and Turkish warnings of intervention similar to past operations in Libya and Syria, traders assign an 80.5% probability to no direct military clash before 2027. Both governments have maintained a deconfliction hotline established after Israeli strikes near Turkish positions in Syria, while Israel remains focused on operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Turkey’s recent unveiling of long-range missiles and drones signals capability buildup rather than immediate deployment, with mutual posturing largely directed at domestic audiences amid severed formal ties but persistent indirect trade channels. These factors, alongside NATO coordination on Turkish bases, underpin the current consensus that structural restraints and competing priorities will continue to prevent armed confrontation through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,710Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing rhetorical escalation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including April 2026 indictments against Israeli officials over Gaza flotilla incidents and Turkish warnings of intervention similar to past operations in Libya and Syria, traders assign an 80.5% probability to no direct military clash before 2027. Both governments have maintained a deconfliction hotline established after Israeli strikes near Turkish positions in Syria, while Israel remains focused on operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Turkey’s recent unveiling of long-range missiles and drones signals capability buildup rather than immediate deployment, with mutual posturing largely directed at domestic audiences amid severed formal ties but persistent indirect trade channels. These factors, alongside NATO coordination on Turkish bases, underpin the current consensus that structural restraints and competing priorities will continue to prevent armed confrontation through the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti