Israeli President Isaac Herzog's April 26 decision to defer any action on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption-case pardon request has anchored trader expectations that clemency is unlikely before the June 30 deadline. Herzog directed his office to first exhaust mediation toward a plea agreement between Netanyahu's legal team and the attorney general, citing the need to complete those talks and adhere to standard Justice Ministry criteria. Ongoing trial proceedings, including repeated postponements tied to regional security developments, have produced no breakthrough that would accelerate resolution. Although U.S. President Trump has renewed public calls for a pardon, Herzog has maintained emphasis on institutional process and national interest. With roughly six weeks remaining and no scheduled events capable of overriding the established sequence, the current 90.5 percent probability on "No" reflects the procedural timeline and absence of overriding developments.